Atletico Torque v 
Atletico-MG
Match statistics
| Atletico Torque | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 554 | Passes | 310 |
| 69% | Possession % | 31% |
| 3.58 | xG | 0.61 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 50%
- Model pick
- Atletico Torque 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 1.09
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Atletico Torque -0.25
Why this price?
Back Atletico Torque -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.27 with Marathonbet — Atletico Torque must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.07. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 9.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.92 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Atletico Torque 1.38, Atletico-MG 1.09.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 3.5
Why this price?
Back under 3.5 goals at 1.53 with Bet365 — 3 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 76% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.41. The offered 1.53 implies only 65%, so the price is 8.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Atletico Torque 1.38, Atletico-MG 1.09.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Torque | 43.0% | 2.32 | 3.45 Betano | 29.0% | +14.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.1% | 3.56 | 3.40 Betano | 29.4% | -1.3 |
| Match result | Atletico-MG | 28.9% | 3.47 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | -13.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | +4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | -3.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.39 Betano | 71.9% | +4.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.83 William Hill | 54.6% | -4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | +7.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atletico Torque favoured against Atletico-MG
Our model makes Atletico Torque 43% to win this CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture, with the draw at 28% and Atletico-MG at 29%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Atletico Torque against 1.09 for Atletico-MG — a clear edge to Atletico Torque on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 9%
This season
| Atletico Torque | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 34 |
| 9-1-3 | W-D-L | 14-8-12 |
| 2.15 | Pts / game | 1.47 |
| 1.54 | Goals for / game | 1.29 |
| 0.85 | Goals against / game | 1.18 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 47% |
| 31% | BTTS | 47% |
| 54% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 32% |
| 7-0-0 | Home record | 10-5-2 |
| 2-1-3 | Away record | 4-3-10 |
| W1 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico Torque · Atletico-MG
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.5 | Shots | 13.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.84 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 52 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.95 | xG | 1.23 |
| 2 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 10.0 | Shots | 19.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 3.5 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.11 |
| 9.5 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 48 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.39 | xG | 1.84 |
| 2 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Atletico Torque | Metric | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 | |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.50 | Shots on target | 6.60 (better) |
| 10.00 | Total shots | 16.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.50 (better) | Corners | 6.80 |
| 54.5 (better) | Possession % | 52.4 |
| Passes | 498 | |
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | 12.20 | |
| Offsides | 2.00 | |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Atletico Torque wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Atletico-MG wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG2–02026-10-21
- Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque3–02026-10-14