Predicted Edge

Atlético Paso v Cordoba

Atlético Paso won 1 of the last 13–1Cordoba won 3 of the last 511th
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Atlético Paso 43%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.59

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAtlético Paso42.5%2.356.60 Dafabet15.2%+27.4
Match resultDraw23.5%4.254.75 Bet36521.1%+2.5
Match resultCordoba34.0%2.941.52 Dafabet65.8%-31.8
Total goalsOver 1.585.7%1.171.23 BetVictor81.3%+4.4
Total goalsUnder 1.514.3%7.004.33 Bet36523.1%-8.8
Total goalsOver 2.565.9%1.521.70 Bet36558.8%+7.0
Total goalsUnder 2.534.1%2.932.15 Bet36546.5%-12.4
Total goalsOver 3.544.0%2.272.80 Betfair35.7%+8.3
Total goalsUnder 3.556.0%1.781.44 Bet36569.4%-13.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes67.0%1.491.91 Bet36552.4%+14.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No33.0%3.032.05 Bet36548.8%-15.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atlético Paso favoured against Cordoba

Our model makes Atlético Paso 43% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cordoba at 34%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Atlético Paso against 1.59 for Cordoba — a slight edge to Atlético Paso on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Atlético Paso and Cordoba
Atlético Paso Cordoba
1Played13
1-0-0W-D-L6-1-6
3.00Pts / game1.46
3.00Goals for / game1.69
1.00Goals against / game1.69
100%Over 2.577%
100%BTTS69%
0%Clean sheets23%
0%Failed to score8%
1-0-0Home record4-0-2
0-0-0Away record2-1-4
W1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atlético Paso · Cordoba

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots16.0
—Shots on target6.0
—Corners7.7
—Cards3.43
—Fouls15.6
—Possession %56
—xG1.65
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots12.6
—Shots on target4.4
—Corners4.6
—Cards3.14
—Fouls12.3
—Possession %44
—xG1.81
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atlético PasoMetricCordoba
1.20Goals scored1.60 (better)
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.60
Expected goals (xG)1.43
Big chances
Shots on target4.80
Total shots15.40
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.60
Possession %56.8
Passes442
Tackles
Fouls17.80
Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards3.60
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Atlético Paso wins
1
Draws
0
Cordoba wins
0
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%