Predicted Edge

Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna

Atletico Calatayud won 2 of the last 30–6Osasuna won 1 of the last 516th
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Osasuna 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAtletico Calatayud36.0%2.7776.00 Betfair1.3%+34.7
Match resultDraw25.5%3.9126.00 Betfair3.8%+21.7
Match resultOsasuna38.4%2.601.04 William Hill96.2%-57.7
Total goalsOver 1.580.2%1.251.01 Betfair99.0%-18.8
Total goalsUnder 1.519.8%5.0617.00 Betfair5.9%+13.9
Total goalsOver 2.557.1%1.751.08 Bet36592.6%-35.5
Total goalsUnder 2.542.9%2.338.00 Bet36512.5%+30.4
Total goalsOver 3.534.7%2.881.29 Betfair77.5%-42.8
Total goalsUnder 3.565.3%1.533.80 BetVictor26.3%+39.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.4%1.663.20 BetVictor31.3%+29.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.6%2.531.57 Betfair63.7%-24.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atletico Calatayud v Osasuna: too close to call

Our model makes Atletico Calatayud 36% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Osasuna at 38%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Atletico Calatayud against 1.51 for Osasuna — almost nothing to Osasuna on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 7%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Atletico Calatayud and Osasuna
Atletico Calatayud Osasuna
3Played12
2-0-1W-D-L3-3-6
2.00Pts / game1.00
1.33Goals for / game1.00
2.33Goals against / game1.92
67%Over 2.542%
33%BTTS50%
33%Clean sheets25%
33%Failed to score33%
1-0-1Home record2-3-1
1-0-0Away record1-0-5
L1StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico Calatayud · Osasuna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.7
—Shots on target3.6
—Corners3.9
—Cards3.00
—Fouls15.3
—Possession %42
—xG1.33
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots18.0
—Shots on target5.6
—Corners6.1
—Cards1.43
—Fouls9.4
—Possession %58
—xG2.02
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico CalatayudMetricOsasuna
1.25 (better)Goals scored1.00
2.00 (better)Goals conceded2.40
Expected goals (xG)1.53
Big chances
Shots on target4.00
Total shots11.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.60
Possession %44.4
Passes374
Tackles
Fouls15.40
Offsides2.25
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.80
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Atletico Calatayud wins
0
Draws
0
Osasuna wins
1
Goals / game
6.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%