Atlético Baleares won 0 of the last 1L0–1Eldense won 2 of the last 5LLLWW15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Atlético Baleares
Eldense
—
Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
4
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
—
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
36%
25%
39%
1 · Atlético BalearesXEldense · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Eldense 39%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.58
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Atlético Baleares
36.4%
2.74
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+13.2
Match result
Draw
24.9%
4.02
3.90 Dafabet
25.6%
-0.8
Match result
Eldense
38.7%
2.58
2.04 Dafabet
49.0%
-10.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.2%
1.22
1.31 BetVictor
76.3%
+5.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.8%
5.63
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-10.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.1%
1.66
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+8.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.9%
2.51
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-11.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.8%
2.65
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+7.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.2%
1.61
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-13.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.8%
1.59
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+7.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.2%
2.69
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
-11.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atlético Baleares v Eldense: too close to call
Our model makes Atlético Baleares 36% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Eldense at 39%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Atlético Baleares against 1.58 for Eldense — almost nothing to Eldense on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atlético Baleares
Metric
Eldense
1.60
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
2.00
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.99
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
5.60
—
Total shots
15.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.60
—
Possession %
53.0
—
Passes
457
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
12.80
—
Offsides
1.60
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.60
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Atlético Baleares v 
Eldense