Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos

11th0–013th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Levadiakos
9	Shots	6
1	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	3
21	Fouls	8
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
420	Passes	227
65%	Possession %	35%
0.00	xG	0.00

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Asteras Tripolis 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.33

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Asteras Tripolis	41.0%	2.44	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-6.6
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-4.2
Match result	Levadiakos	32.9%	3.04	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+9.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.2%	1.28	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+9.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.8%	4.59	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.1%	1.85	2.35 Betano	42.6%	+11.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.9%	2.18	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-12.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.8%	3.14	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+9.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.2%	1.47	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-13.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.73	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-11.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Asteras Tripolis favoured against Levadiakos

Our model makes Asteras Tripolis 41% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Levadiakos at 33%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Asteras Tripolis against 1.33 for Levadiakos — a slight edge to Asteras Tripolis on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis		Levadiakos
10	Played	10
1-4-5	W-D-L	1-3-6
0.70	Pts / game	0.60
0.90	Goals for / game	0.40
1.80	Goals against / game	1.30
50%	Over 2.5	30%
70%	BTTS	10%
10%	Clean sheets	40%
30%	Failed to score	80%
1-3-2	Home record	1-1-3
0-1-3	Away record	0-2-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Asteras Tripolis · Levadiakos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.3	Shots	9.8
3.2	Shots on target	3.7
3.0	Corners	4.5
2.20	Cards	1.70
14.2	Fouls	12.8
42	Possession %	41
0.76	xG	0.90
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	11.2
4.3	Shots on target	2.7
5.7	Corners	6.0
2.20	Cards	2.90
10.5	Fouls	15.5
58	Possession %	59
1.69	xG	0.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Asteras Tripolis	Metric	Levadiakos
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.00
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.12 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.62
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.60
10.67 (better)	Total shots	10.40
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	4.60 (better)
36.3	Possession %	45.0 (better)
301	Passes	363 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	14.80 (better)
1.67 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Asteras Tripolis wins: 0
Draws: 2
Levadiakos wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos0–02026-10-24
Levadiakos v Asteras Tripolis3–12026-02-01
Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos1–12025-12-07

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5