Ascoli v Palermo

3rd1–11st

19:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ascoli		Palermo
10	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	2
7	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
511	Passes	377
57%	Possession %	43%
1.32	xG	1.63

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Ascoli 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.51

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Palermo +0.25

1.90Bet365 · fair 1.75 · qualifies at 1.81+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Palermo +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.90 with Bet365 — Palermo starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.75. The offered 1.90 implies only 53%, so the price is 8.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ascoli 1.59, Palermo 1.51.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ascoli	39.3%	2.54	3.20 Betano	31.3%	+8.0
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.02	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-2.9
Match result	Palermo	35.8%	2.79	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-4.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.1%	1.22	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.9%	5.59	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.9%	1.67	1.72 Betano	58.1%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.1%	2.50	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.4%	1.60	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.6%	1.60	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.4%	2.67	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ascoli v Palermo: too close to call

Our model makes Ascoli 39% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 25% and Palermo at 36%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Ascoli against 1.51 for Palermo — almost nothing to Ascoli on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Ascoli and Palermo
Ascoli		Palermo
11	Played	11
5-5-1	W-D-L	8-3-0
1.82	Pts / game	2.45
1.55	Goals for / game	2.27
0.64	Goals against / game	1.18
27%	Over 2.5	64%
55%	BTTS	82%
36%	Clean sheets	18%
27%	Failed to score	0%
3-3-0	Home record	5-0-0
2-2-1	Away record	3-3-0
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ascoli · Palermo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	20.0
4.0	Shots on target	6.5
6.2	Corners	3.7
1.33	Cards	0.83
9.8	Fouls	9.8
63	Possession %	47
1.46	xG	2.42
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	11.2
4.7	Shots on target	3.5
4.3	Corners	4.2
1.67	Cards	1.00
16.0	Fouls	12.0
38	Possession %	53
1.19	xG	1.72
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ascoli	Metric	Palermo
2.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.55	Expected goals (xG)	2.51 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
13.80	Total shots	20.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	4.60
61.6 (better)	Possession %	48.8
517 (better)	Passes	432
	Tackles
9.80	Fouls	9.80
2.00	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ascoli wins: 0
Draws: 1
Palermo wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Ascoli v Palermo1–12026-11-06

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5