Aris Thessalonikis v Panetolikos

5th3–010th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Panetolikos
18	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	5
16	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
577	Passes	307
64%	Possession %	36%
2.06	xG	0.93

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Aris Thessalonikis 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 0.94

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Aris Thessalonikis	57.5%	1.74	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-12.0
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.18	4.70 Betano	21.3%	+2.6
Match result	Panetolikos	18.6%	5.37	8.40 Dafabet	11.9%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.5%	1.31	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.5%	4.26	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.2%	2.08	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.37	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.4%	1.95	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.6%	2.06	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aris Thessalonikis favoured against Panetolikos

Our model makes Aris Thessalonikis 57% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Panetolikos at 19%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Aris Thessalonikis against 0.94 for Panetolikos — a substantial edge to Aris Thessalonikis on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis		Panetolikos
10	Played	10
6-1-3	W-D-L	3-0-7
1.90	Pts / game	0.90
1.60	Goals for / game	0.80
1.70	Goals against / game	2.00
80%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	20%
20%	Clean sheets	20%
40%	Failed to score	60%
4-1-0	Home record	2-0-3
2-0-3	Away record	1-0-4
W1	Streak	L7

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aris Thessalonikis · Panetolikos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	9.8
4.8	Shots on target	2.0
4.6	Corners	4.7
1.80	Cards	2.53
17.2	Fouls	14.3
58	Possession %	46
1.29	xG	0.68
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.4	Shots	18.3
3.2	Shots on target	6.2
3.6	Corners	5.8
1.40	Cards	1.50
13.6	Fouls	17.2
42	Possession %	54
1.05	xG	2.27
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aris Thessalonikis	Metric	Panetolikos
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	3.00
1.41 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.64
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
17.50 (better)	Total shots	8.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	4.00
54.0 (better)	Possession %	48.2
419 (better)	Passes	389
	Tackles
16.25	Fouls	13.80 (better)
1.67	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aris Thessalonikis wins: 2
Draws: 0
Panetolikos wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Aris Thessalonikis v Panetolikos3–02026-11-07
Panetolikos v Aris Thessalonikis0–12026-01-31
Aris Thessalonikis v Panetolikos0–22025-08-30

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5