Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5WLWWW5th3–1Atromitos won 1 of the last 5DWLLL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
13
Shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
1
19
Fouls
17
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
458
Passes
376
55%
Possession %
45%
0.82
xG
0.63
43%
27%
30%
1 · Aris ThessalonikisXAtromitos · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Aris Thessalonikis 43%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Aris Thessalonikis
42.8%
2.33
1.68 Dafabet
59.5%
-16.7
Match result
Draw
27.1%
3.69
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
+1.4
Match result
Atromitos
30.1%
3.32
5.30 Betano
18.9%
+11.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.34
1.33 Betano
75.2%
-0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.2%
3.96
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.3%
2.03
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.7%
1.97
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
-3.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.4%
3.65
3.95 Betano
25.3%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.6%
1.38
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-2.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.9%
1.85
2.00 Betano
50.0%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.1%
2.17
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-6.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Aris Thessalonikis favoured against Atromitos
Our model makes Aris Thessalonikis 43% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Atromitos at 30%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.19 for Atromitos — a clear edge to Aris Thessalonikis on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aris Thessalonikis
Metric
Atromitos
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.75
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.50
1.98 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.84
—
Big chances *
—
4.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.33
20.33 (better)
Total shots
10.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.33 (better)
Corners
3.00
56.0 (better)
Possession %
53.0
433 (better)
Passes
421
—
Tackles
—
14.67
Fouls
14.67
2.00 (better)
Offsides
3.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33 (better)
Yellow cards
2.67
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Aris Thessalonikis v 
Atromitos