Arges Pitesti v Uta Arad

13th0–110th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Arges Pitesti		Uta Arad
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
9	Corners	4
16	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
409	Passes	305
56%	Possession %	44%
1.50	xG	0.68

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 32%
Over 3.5: 14%
Both score: 39%

Model pick: Arges Pitesti 40%
Likely score: 1-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 0.86

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	86.2%	1.16	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	39.5%	2.53	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-12.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	60.5%	1.65	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+7.0
Match result	Arges Pitesti	40.5%	2.47	2.60 William Hill	38.5%	+2.0
Match result	Draw	32.1%	3.12	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	+1.3
Match result	Uta Arad	27.5%	3.64	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	-5.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	59.4%	1.68	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	40.6%	2.46	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	31.7%	3.16	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-11.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	68.3%	1.46	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	13.8%	7.22	4.40 Betano	22.7%	-8.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arges Pitesti favoured against Uta Arad

Our model makes Arges Pitesti 40% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 32% and Uta Arad at 27%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Arges Pitesti against 0.86 for Uta Arad — a slight edge to Arges Pitesti on expected output. A combined 1.98 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 32% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 15%; 0-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad
Arges Pitesti		Uta Arad
15	Played	15
4-3-8	W-D-L	5-3-7
1.00	Pts / game	1.20
0.67	Goals for / game	1.07
1.13	Goals against / game	1.33
20%	Over 2.5	40%
33%	BTTS	33%
20%	Clean sheets	33%
47%	Failed to score	47%
3-2-3	Home record	3-3-1
1-1-5	Away record	2-0-6
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arges Pitesti · Uta Arad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	18.4
4.2	Shots on target	4.8
6.8	Corners	5.4
3.20	Cards	2.53
14.8	Fouls	12.6
47	Possession %	47
1.74	xG	1.23
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	14.0
4.4	Shots on target	4.0
5.6	Corners	6.0
1.73	Cards	2.60
12.2	Fouls	12.0
53	Possession %	53
1.42	xG	2.24
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Arges Pitesti	Metric	Uta Arad
0.80	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.65	Expected goals (xG)	1.96 (better)
	Big chances
1.67	Shots on target	5.50 (better)
13.00	Total shots	18.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.33	Corners	7.75 (better)
44.7	Possession %	50.5 (better)
329	Passes	406 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	12.75
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Arges Pitesti wins: 0
Draws: 1
Uta Arad wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5