Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti

13th2–12nd

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Arges Pitesti		Dinamo Bucuresti
8	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	7
16	Fouls	8
5	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	1
208	Passes	494
30%	Possession %	70%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 31%
Over 3.5: 13%
Both score: 38%

Model pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 44%
Likely score: 0-1 16%
Expected goals: 0.79 – 1.16

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Arges Pitesti	24.5%	4.08	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+6.3
Match result	Draw	31.9%	3.14	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	+5.6
Match result	Dinamo Bucuresti	43.6%	2.29	1.65 William Hill	60.6%	-17.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	58.8%	1.70	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-14.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	41.2%	2.43	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+11.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	31.1%	3.22	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-17.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	68.9%	1.45	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+14.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	13.5%	7.43	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-14.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	86.5%	1.16	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+10.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	38.3%	2.61	1.95 BetVictor	51.3%	-13.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	61.7%	1.62	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dinamo Bucuresti favoured against Arges Pitesti

Our model makes Arges Pitesti 25% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 32% and Dinamo Bucuresti at 44%. The goal projection is 0.79 for Arges Pitesti against 1.16 for Dinamo Bucuresti — a clear edge to Dinamo Bucuresti on expected output. A combined 1.95 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 16%; 0-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-2 10%

This season

Season records for Arges Pitesti and Dinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti		Dinamo Bucuresti
15	Played	15
4-3-8	W-D-L	10-3-2
1.00	Pts / game	2.20
0.67	Goals for / game	2.13
1.13	Goals against / game	0.73
20%	Over 2.5	53%
33%	BTTS	53%
20%	Clean sheets	40%
47%	Failed to score	7%
3-2-3	Home record	7-0-0
1-1-5	Away record	3-3-2
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arges Pitesti · Dinamo Bucuresti

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	19.8
4.2	Shots on target	6.0
6.8	Corners	7.2
3.20	Cards	2.00
14.8	Fouls	9.8
47	Possession %	60
1.74	xG	2.73
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	10.3
4.4	Shots on target	3.8
5.6	Corners	3.8
1.73	Cards	3.33
12.2	Fouls	10.5
53	Possession %	41
1.42	xG	0.84
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Arges Pitesti	Metric	Dinamo Bucuresti
1.00	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.80
1.57	Expected goals (xG)	2.46 (better)
	Big chances
4.67	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
17.67	Total shots	20.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.67 (better)	Corners	7.25
54.0	Possession %	57.5 (better)
360	Passes	519 (better)
	Tackles
15.33	Fouls	9.75 (better)
1.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Arges Pitesti wins: 2
Draws: 2
Dinamo Bucuresti wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.20
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 80%

Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti2–12026-11-06
Dinamo Bucuresti v Arges Pitesti2–12026-05-10
Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti1–12026-04-04
Dinamo Bucuresti v Arges Pitesti0–12026-03-01
Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti1–12025-10-24

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5