Argentinos JRS v 
Tigre
Match statistics
| Argentinos JRS | Tigre | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 362 | Passes | 444 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 58%
- Over 2.5
- 30%
- Over 3.5
- 13%
- Both score
- 38%
- Model pick
- Argentinos JRS 41%
- Likely score
- 0-0 16%
- Expected goals
- 1.10 – 0.81
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Tigre
Why this price?
Back Tigre to win at 4.75 with Bet365.
Our model puts the chance at 26%, which is a fair price of 3.83. The offered 4.75 implies only 21%, so the price is 24.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.60 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Argentinos JRS 1.10, Tigre 0.81.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Argentinos JRS | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.87 Betano | 53.5% | -12.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 32.9% | 3.04 | 3.35 Betano | 29.9% | +3.0 |
| Match result | Tigre | 26.1% | 3.83 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -6.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | +4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.60 Bet365 | 38.5% | -8.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 12.7% | 7.87 | 5.75 BetVictor | 17.4% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | +3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.65 Betfair | 60.6% | +1.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Argentinos JRS favoured against Tigre
Our model makes Argentinos JRS 41% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 33% and Tigre at 26%. The goal projection is 1.10 for Argentinos JRS against 0.81 for Tigre — a clear edge to Argentinos JRS on expected output. A combined 1.91 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 30% and both teams to score at 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-0 16%
- 1-0 15%
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-0 9%
This season
| Argentinos JRS | Tigre | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Played | 32 |
| 18-11-6 | W-D-L | 9-12-11 |
| 1.86 | Pts / game | 1.22 |
| 1.14 | Goals for / game | 1.06 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 0.97 |
| 31% | Over 2.5 | 34% |
| 46% | BTTS | 50% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 34% |
| 12-6-1 | Home record | 6-6-4 |
| 6-5-5 | Away record | 3-6-7 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Argentinos JRS · Tigre
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.4 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 3.29 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 54 | Possession % | 56 |
| 0.99 | xG | 1.36 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 13.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.86 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 46 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.21 | xG | 0.95 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Argentinos JRS | Metric | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 14.00 (better) | Total shots | 11.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 3.80 |
| 63.4 (better) | Possession % | 45.4 |
| 552 (better) | Passes | 353 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Fouls | 11.80 |
| 3.25 | Offsides | 0.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Argentinos JRS wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Tigre wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Argentinos JRS v Tigre2–12026-10-04
- Tigre v Argentinos JRS1–12026-03-16
- Tigre v Argentinos JRS2–12025-07-20
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | +19 | 66 | Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | +12 | 65 | Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 33 | 17 | 13 | 3 | +23 | 64 | Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | River Plate | 36 | 19 | 5 | 12 | +19 | 62 | River Plate won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 60 | Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Belgrano Cordoba | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | +10 | 59 | Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Independ. Rivadavia | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 57 | Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Velez Sarsfield | 33 | 14 | 14 | 5 | +13 | 56 | Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | +11 | 55 | Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lanus | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | +8 | 50 | Lanus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | +10 | 47 | Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Barracas Central | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +4 | 47 | Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Defensa Y Justicia | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +3 | 47 | Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Independiente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 47 | Independiente won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Huracan | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | +2 | 46 | Huracan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | +3 | 45 | Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | -7 | 42 | San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gimnasia M. | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 41 | Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Racing Club | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -5 | 40 | Racing Club won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sarmiento Junin | 32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | -8 | 40 | Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Tigre | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | +3 | 39 | Tigre won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Talleres Cordoba | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 39 | Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Newells Old Boys | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | -9 | 38 | Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 36 | Platense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 25 | Banfield | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -9 | 33 | Banfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 26 | Atletico Tucuman | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -6 | 32 | Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5 |
| 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -24 | 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5 |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 32 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -15 | 23 | Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5 |
| 29 | Aldosivi | 32 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -23 | 19 | Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5 |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 32 | 3 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 14 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5 |