Annecy v Montpellier

9th0–33rd

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Annecy		Montpellier
21	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	2
18	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	6
256	Passes	651
29%	Possession %	71%
2.91	xG	1.54

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Montpellier 42%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.96 – 1.23

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Annecy	28.1%	3.55	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-4.6
Match result	Draw	30.2%	3.32	3.45 Betano	29.0%	+1.2
Match result	Montpellier	41.7%	2.40	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.0%	1.54	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-12.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.0%	2.86	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	+9.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.6%	2.66	1.90 Betano	52.6%	-15.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.4%	1.60	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+12.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.9%	5.57	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-12.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.1%	1.22	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.4%	2.25	1.73 William Hill	57.8%	-13.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.6%	1.80	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+10.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Montpellier favoured against Annecy

Our model makes Annecy 28% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 30% and Montpellier at 42%. The goal projection is 0.96 for Annecy against 1.23 for Montpellier — a clear edge to Montpellier on expected output. A combined 2.19 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 12%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Annecy and Montpellier
Annecy		Montpellier
12	Played	12
5-1-6	W-D-L	7-3-2
1.33	Pts / game	2.00
1.17	Goals for / game	1.50
1.50	Goals against / game	0.75
67%	Over 2.5	42%
58%	BTTS	42%
25%	Clean sheets	58%
17%	Failed to score	8%
1-1-3	Home record	3-2-1
4-0-3	Away record	4-1-1
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Annecy · Montpellier

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	14.2
5.8	Shots on target	5.4
6.0	Corners	5.0
1.80	Cards	2.00
12.8	Fouls	13.8
40	Possession %	61
1.53	xG	1.46
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	14.4
4.6	Shots on target	4.6
5.6	Corners	5.2
2.00	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	17.8
60	Possession %	39
1.33	xG	1.59
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Annecy	Metric	Montpellier
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.65
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
10.25	Total shots	13.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	5.20
42.5	Possession %	61.2 (better)
382	Passes	567 (better)
	Tackles
13.50 (better)	Fouls	14.60
2.75	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Annecy wins: 0
Draws: 1
Montpellier wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Annecy v Montpellier0–32026-10-31
Annecy v Montpellier0–02026-04-10
Montpellier v Annecy1–02025-11-07

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5