Anaitasuna v Alaves

1–612th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Anaitasuna		Alaves
8	Shots	23
3	Shots on target	11
2	Corners	5
12	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	5
308	Passes	560
36%	Possession %	64%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Anaitasuna 43%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.65

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Anaitasuna	42.9%	2.33	61.00 Betfair	1.6%	+41.2
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.34	19.00 Bet365	5.3%	+17.8
Match result	Alaves	34.1%	2.93	1.07 William Hill	93.5%	-59.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.0%	1.15	1.03 Bet365	97.1%	-10.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.0%	7.68	15.00 Bet365	6.7%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.1%	1.47	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-17.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.9%	3.13	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+15.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.5%	2.15	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-24.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.5%	1.87	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+21.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.7%	1.46	2.95 Betano	33.9%	+34.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.3%	3.19	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	-25.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Anaitasuna favoured against Alaves

Our model makes Anaitasuna 43% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 23% and Alaves at 34%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Anaitasuna against 1.65 for Alaves — a slight edge to Anaitasuna on expected output. A combined 3.51 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Anaitasuna and Alaves
Anaitasuna		Alaves
3	Played	12
2-0-1	W-D-L	3-4-5
2.00	Pts / game	1.08
3.67	Goals for / game	1.25
2.67	Goals against / game	1.42
100%	Over 2.5	50%
67%	BTTS	58%
33%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	25%
1-0-1	Home record	3-1-2
1-0-0	Away record	0-3-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Anaitasuna · Alaves

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	12.8
3.0	Shots on target	4.4
2.0	Corners	3.3
1.00	Cards	1.50
12.0	Fouls	12.6
36	Possession %	44
—	xG	0.89
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
23.0	Shots	12.9
11.0	Shots on target	4.4
5.0	Corners	4.1
0.00	Cards	1.88
9.0	Fouls	13.5
64	Possession %	57
—	xG	1.55
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Anaitasuna	Metric	Alaves
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.09
	Big chances
	Shots on target	4.60
	Total shots	12.20
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	2.60
	Possession %	40.2
	Passes	358
	Tackles
	Fouls	13.00
	Offsides	4.00
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.20
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Anaitasuna wins: 0
Draws: 0
Alaves wins: 1
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Anaitasuna v Alaves1–62026-11-10