Amorebieta won 1 of the last 1W1–0UD Logroñés won 0 of the last 1L
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Amorebieta
UD Logroñés
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Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
—
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
38%
25%
38%
1 · AmorebietaXUD Logroñés · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
63%
Model pick
UD Logroñés 38%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.58
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Amorebieta
37.6%
2.66
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
+14.5
Match result
Draw
24.7%
4.05
3.65 Dafabet
27.4%
-2.7
Match result
UD Logroñés
37.8%
2.65
2.18 Dafabet
45.9%
-8.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.21
1.29 Betfair
77.5%
+5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.2%
5.81
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-9.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.0%
1.64
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+7.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.0%
2.57
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-8.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
38.7%
2.58
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
+6.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
61.3%
1.63
1.37 Betano
73.0%
-11.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.5%
1.58
1.73 BetVictor
57.8%
+5.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.5%
2.74
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-10.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Amorebieta v UD Logroñés: too close to call
Our model makes Amorebieta 38% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and UD Logroñés at 38%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Amorebieta against 1.58 for UD Logroñés — almost nothing to UD Logroñés on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Amorebieta
Metric
UD Logroñés
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
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Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
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—
Shots on target
—
—
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
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—
Corners
—
—
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Amorebieta v 
UD Logroñés