Predicted Edge

Alvechurch v Spalding United

Alvechurch won 3 of the last 54–0Spalding United won 2 of the last 5
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Alvechurch 41%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.52

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAlvechurch41.0%2.443.00 Dafabet33.3%+7.7
Match resultDraw24.4%4.093.80 Dafabet26.3%-1.9
Match resultSpalding United34.6%2.892.26 Dafabet44.2%-9.7
Total goalsOver 1.583.3%1.201.24 Betano80.6%+2.6
Total goalsUnder 1.516.7%5.98———
Total goalsOver 2.561.8%1.621.75 Bet36557.1%+4.7
Total goalsUnder 2.538.2%2.622.05 Bet36548.8%-10.6
Total goalsOver 3.539.5%2.53———
Total goalsUnder 3.560.5%1.651.39 Betano71.9%-11.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.0%1.561.62 Betano61.7%+2.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.0%2.77———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alvechurch favoured against Spalding United

Our model makes Alvechurch 41% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Spalding United at 35%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Alvechurch against 1.52 for Spalding United — a slight edge to Alvechurch on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Alvechurch and Spalding United
Alvechurch Spalding United
6Played5
4-1-1W-D-L2-2-1
2.17Pts / game1.60
2.17Goals for / game1.80
1.33Goals against / game1.40
83%Over 2.560%
50%BTTS40%
33%Clean sheets40%
17%Failed to score20%
3-0-0Home record2-1-0
1-1-1Away record0-1-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alvechurch · Spalding United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
0.0Shots14.0
0.0Shots on target7.0
4.0Corners4.0
3.00Cards1.00
13.0Fouls—
27Possession %46
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
23.0Shots13.0
8.0Shots on target5.0
6.0Corners4.0
1.00Cards0.00
14.0Fouls—
73Possession %54
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AlvechurchMetricSpalding United
1.25Goals scored1.60 (better)
1.25Goals conceded1.20 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target7.00
Total shots14.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.00
Possession %46.0
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.00
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Alvechurch wins
1
Draws
1
Spalding United wins
0
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
50%