Predicted Edge

Alpendorada v Casa Pia

Alpendorada won 1 of the last 30–1Casa Pia won 2 of the last 516th
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Alpendorada 60%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.02

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAlpendorada59.8%1.67———
Match resultDraw22.3%4.49———
Match resultCasa Pia17.9%5.57———
Total goalsOver 1.581.2%1.23———
Total goalsUnder 1.518.8%5.32———
Total goalsOver 2.558.5%1.71———
Total goalsUnder 2.541.5%2.41———
Total goalsOver 3.536.1%2.77———
Total goalsUnder 3.563.9%1.56———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes56.0%1.78———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No44.0%2.27———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alpendorada favoured against Casa Pia

Our model makes Alpendorada 60% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 22% and Casa Pia at 18%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Alpendorada against 1.02 for Casa Pia — a commanding edge to Alpendorada on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 10%
1-0 9%
3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Alpendorada and Casa Pia
Alpendorada Casa Pia
3Played11
1-1-1W-D-L2-2-7
1.33Pts / game0.73
1.33Goals for / game0.55
0.67Goals against / game1.82
33%Over 2.527%
33%BTTS27%
33%Clean sheets18%
33%Failed to score64%
1-0-1Home record0-0-5
0-1-0Away record2-2-2
L1StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alpendorada · Casa Pia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots9.8
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners3.4
—Cards2.25
—Fouls13.0
—Possession %42
—xG0.97
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots16.8
—Shots on target6.0
—Corners6.8
—Cards2.80
—Fouls12.8
—Possession %58
—xG1.36
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AlpendoradaMetricCasa Pia
1.60 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.80Goals conceded1.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)1.05
Big chances
Shots on target3.00
Total shots10.40
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.20
Possession %42.0
Passes308
Tackles
Fouls12.20
Offsides1.60
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.40
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Alpendorada wins
0
Draws
0
Casa Pia wins
2
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
0%