Almeria v Oviedo

1st2–29th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Almeria		Oviedo
7	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	8
4	Corners	7
11	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
383	Passes	570
40%	Possession %	60%
0.70	xG	1.35

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Almeria 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.99

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Almeria -0.5

1.65Bet365 · fair 1.48 · qualifies at 1.53+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Almeria -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Almeria must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Almeria 1.74, Oviedo 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Almeria	54.5%	1.83	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-2.7
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.05	3.95 Betano	25.3%	-0.6
Match result	Oviedo	20.8%	4.81	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.3%	1.31	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.7%	4.22	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.5%	1.94	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.5%	2.06	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.4%	3.41	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.6%	1.42	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.4%	1.91	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.6%	2.10	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Almeria favoured against Oviedo

Our model makes Almeria 55% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 25% and Oviedo at 21%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Almeria against 0.99 for Oviedo — a substantial edge to Almeria on expected output. A combined 2.74 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Almeria and Oviedo
Almeria		Oviedo
13	Played	13
9-2-2	W-D-L	6-3-4
2.23	Pts / game	1.62
1.85	Goals for / game	1.46
0.77	Goals against / game	1.23
46%	Over 2.5	62%
38%	BTTS	54%
46%	Clean sheets	38%
15%	Failed to score	23%
5-1-0	Home record	2-2-2
4-1-2	Away record	4-1-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Almeria · Oviedo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	15.9
4.6	Shots on target	5.9
3.9	Corners	5.5
2.00	Cards	3.63
13.6	Fouls	14.4
52	Possession %	51
1.35	xG	1.58
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	15.4
4.4	Shots on target	5.5
5.8	Corners	6.1
3.75	Cards	3.27
15.5	Fouls	14.0
48	Possession %	49
1.17	xG	1.81
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Almeria	Metric	Oviedo
2.00	Goals scored	2.00
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.74 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.65
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
14.80 (better)	Total shots	13.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.40 (better)
54.2 (better)	Possession %	46.4
478 (better)	Passes	381
	Tackles
15.60	Fouls	12.00 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	3.20
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Almeria wins: 0
Draws: 1
Oviedo wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Almeria v Oviedo2–22026-10-24

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5