Almeria v Burgos

1st2–13rd

14:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Almeria		Burgos
25	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	3
15	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
621	Passes	284
69%	Possession %	31%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Almeria 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.13

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Almeria	39.4%	2.54	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-23.1
Match result	Draw	29.0%	3.45	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+5.9
Match result	Burgos	31.6%	3.17	6.25 Bet365	16.0%	+15.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.3%	1.42	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.7%	3.37	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.5%	2.30	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.5%	1.77	2.08 Bet365	48.1%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.5%	4.45	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-6.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.5%	1.29	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.8%	2.01	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.2%	1.99	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Almeria favoured against Burgos

Our model makes Almeria 39% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 29% and Burgos at 32%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Almeria against 1.13 for Burgos — a slight edge to Almeria on expected output. A combined 2.42 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Almeria and Burgos
Almeria		Burgos
13	Played	13
9-2-2	W-D-L	7-3-3
2.23	Pts / game	1.85
1.85	Goals for / game	1.46
0.77	Goals against / game	1.08
46%	Over 2.5	54%
38%	BTTS	62%
46%	Clean sheets	23%
15%	Failed to score	23%
5-1-0	Home record	5-2-1
4-1-2	Away record	2-1-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Almeria · Burgos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	12.6
4.6	Shots on target	4.9
3.9	Corners	4.6
2.00	Cards	2.50
13.6	Fouls	13.4
52	Possession %	46
1.35	xG	1.53
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	11.9
4.4	Shots on target	4.1
5.8	Corners	4.3
3.75	Cards	2.39
15.5	Fouls	13.9
48	Possession %	54
1.17	xG	0.99
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Almeria	Metric	Burgos
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
1.28	Expected goals (xG)	1.60 (better)
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.60
11.60 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	3.80 (better)
50.4 (better)	Possession %	49.6
431 (better)	Passes	418
	Tackles
14.20 (better)	Fouls	19.20
0.80 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
2.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Almeria wins: 1
Draws: 1
Burgos wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Almeria v Burgos2–12026-10-03
Burgos v Almeria0–02026-05-09
Almeria v Burgos1–22025-12-14

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5