Predicted Edge

Alcochetense v Maritimo

Alcochetense won 2 of the last 31–2Maritimo won 0 of the last 515th
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
54%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Alcochetense 67%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.64 – 1.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAlcochetense66.7%1.50———
Match resultDraw17.7%5.65———
Match resultMaritimo15.6%6.42———
Total goalsOver 1.590.4%1.11———
Total goalsUnder 1.59.6%10.37———
Total goalsOver 2.574.4%1.34———
Total goalsUnder 2.525.6%3.91———
Total goalsOver 3.554.3%1.84———
Total goalsUnder 3.545.7%2.19———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes66.5%1.50———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No33.5%2.99———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alcochetense favoured against Maritimo

Our model makes Alcochetense 67% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 18% and Maritimo at 16%. The goal projection is 2.64 for Alcochetense against 1.25 for Maritimo — a commanding edge to Alcochetense on expected output. A combined 3.88 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Alcochetense is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 9%
3-1 8%
1-1 7%
2-0 7%
3-0 6%

This season

Season records for Alcochetense and Maritimo
Alcochetense Maritimo
3Played10
2-0-1W-D-L2-2-6
2.00Pts / game0.80
3.67Goals for / game0.90
0.67Goals against / game2.10
67%Over 2.570%
33%BTTS60%
67%Clean sheets10%
0%Failed to score30%
2-0-1Home record1-1-3
0-0-0Away record1-1-3
L1StreakL3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alcochetense · Maritimo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.3
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners4.0
—Cards2.33
—Fouls14.3
—Possession %45
—xG0.97
—sample3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots15.3
—Shots on target7.3
—Corners4.7
—Cards3.00
—Fouls16.0
—Possession %55
—xG1.62
—sample3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AlcochetenseMetricMaritimo
3.00 (better)Goals scored0.80
0.60 (better)Goals conceded2.20
Expected goals (xG)0.45
Big chances
Shots on target2.80
Total shots8.80
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.20
Possession %46.4
Passes393
Tackles
Fouls15.00
Offsides0.33
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.60
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Alcochetense wins
0
Draws
0
Maritimo wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%