Predicted Edge

Alcazar v Malaga

Alcazar won 2 of the last 30–3Malaga won 0 of the last 520th
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Malaga 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAlcazar36.3%2.7576.00 Betfair1.3%+35.0
Match resultDraw26.0%3.8526.00 Betfair3.8%+22.1
Match resultMalaga37.7%2.661.03 William Hill97.1%-59.4
Total goalsOver 1.578.9%1.271.02 Bet36598.0%-19.1
Total goalsUnder 1.521.1%4.7517.00 Bet3655.9%+15.2
Total goalsOver 2.555.1%1.811.13 Betano88.5%-33.4
Total goalsUnder 2.544.9%2.237.00 Betfair14.3%+30.6
Total goalsOver 3.532.8%3.051.38 Betano72.5%-39.7
Total goalsUnder 3.567.2%1.493.40 Betfair29.4%+37.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.9%1.703.70 Betfair27.0%+31.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.1%2.441.53 Bet36565.4%-24.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alcazar v Malaga: too close to call

Our model makes Alcazar 36% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Malaga at 38%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Alcazar against 1.46 for Malaga — almost nothing to Malaga on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
0-1 8%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Alcazar and Malaga
Alcazar Malaga
3Played12
2-0-1W-D-L0-5-7
2.00Pts / game0.42
1.00Goals for / game0.75
1.33Goals against / game1.92
67%Over 2.542%
33%BTTS67%
33%Clean sheets8%
33%Failed to score33%
1-0-1Home record0-3-3
1-0-0Away record0-2-4
L1StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alcazar · Malaga

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.6
—Shots on target4.9
—Corners5.1
—Cards2.77
—Fouls12.1
—Possession %46
—xG0.99
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots18.4
—Shots on target6.3
—Corners5.7
—Cards2.57
—Fouls11.3
—Possession %54
—xG1.96
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AlcazarMetricMalaga
1.50 (better)Goals scored1.00
0.50 (better)Goals conceded2.20
Expected goals (xG)0.70
Big chances
Shots on target4.00
Total shots12.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners6.00
Possession %50.0
Passes457
Tackles
Fouls11.40
Offsides1.20
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.60
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Alcazar wins
0
Draws
0
Malaga wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%