Albacete v Sabadell

21st2–113th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Albacete		Sabadell
5	Shots	25
2	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	6
12	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
235	Passes	454
41%	Possession %	59%
0.42	xG	1.67

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Sabadell 40%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.00 – 1.21

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Albacete -0.5

2.70Betano · fair 2.41 · qualifies at 2.49+ · 1.75u

Why this price?

Back Albacete -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.70 with Betano — Albacete must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 29% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.41. The offered 2.70 implies only 37%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.75 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Albacete 1.00, Sabadell 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.0%	1.61	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.3%	5.47	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.7%	1.22	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.0%	2.22	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-7.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.0%	1.82	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	+0.9
Match result	Albacete	29.5%	3.40	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-6.9
Match result	Draw	30.1%	3.32	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-0.6
Match result	Sabadell	40.4%	2.48	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+11.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.5%	1.53	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.5%	2.90	3.00 BetVictor	33.3%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.0%	2.63	2.30 Betano	43.5%	-5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sabadell favoured against Albacete

Our model makes Albacete 29% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 30% and Sabadell at 40%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Albacete against 1.21 for Sabadell — a slight edge to Sabadell on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 12%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Albacete and Sabadell
Albacete		Sabadell
13	Played	13
3-1-9	W-D-L	4-6-3
0.77	Pts / game	1.38
1.00	Goals for / game	0.92
1.85	Goals against / game	0.85
62%	Over 2.5	31%
62%	BTTS	46%
8%	Clean sheets	38%
31%	Failed to score	46%
2-0-4	Home record	3-3-0
1-1-5	Away record	1-3-3
W3	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Albacete · Sabadell

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	15.1
3.6	Shots on target	3.6
6.1	Corners	5.4
3.43	Cards	2.77
13.7	Fouls	17.3
43	Possession %	49
0.97	xG	1.11
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	9.1
4.7	Shots on target	2.5
4.6	Corners	3.9
2.71	Cards	2.52
13.0	Fouls	11.3
57	Possession %	51
1.76	xG	1.10
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Albacete	Metric	Sabadell
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.28 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.87
	Big chances
3.60 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
14.40 (better)	Total shots	12.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.60 (better)
46.6 (better)	Possession %	42.0
390 (better)	Passes	310
	Tackles
13.60 (better)	Fouls	17.60
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.60 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Albacete wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sabadell wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Albacete v Sabadell2–12026-10-31

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5