Alaves v 
Atletico Madrid
Match statistics
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 340 | Passes | 706 |
| 32% | Possession % | 68% |
| 1.13 | xG | 2.14 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Atletico Madrid 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.39 – 1.61
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Atletico Madrid +0.25
Why this price?
Back Atletico Madrid +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Bet365 — Atletico Madrid starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 63% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.55. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Alaves 1.39, Atletico Madrid 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.20 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.07. The offered 3.20 implies only 31%, so the price is 4.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.47 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Alaves 1.39, Atletico Madrid 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alaves | 32.5% | 3.08 | 4.60 Betfair | 21.7% | +10.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.90 Bet365 | 25.6% | -0.1 |
| Match result | Atletico Madrid | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -8.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.28 Betano | 78.1% | +2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.3% | 5.18 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -7.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 3.20 Bet365 | 31.3% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -7.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atletico Madrid favoured against Alaves
Our model makes Alaves 32% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Atletico Madrid at 42%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Alaves against 1.61 for Atletico Madrid — a slight edge to Atletico Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 3-4-5 | W-D-L | 9-1-2 |
| 1.08 | Pts / game | 2.33 |
| 1.25 | Goals for / game | 1.92 |
| 1.42 | Goals against / game | 0.83 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 58% | BTTS | 42% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 3-1-2 | Home record | 4-1-1 |
| 0-3-3 | Away record | 5-0-1 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alaves · Atletico Madrid
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.3 | Shots | 17.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.68 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 41 | Possession % | 58 |
| 0.89 | xG | 1.98 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 13.6 | Shots | 11.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 3.1 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.77 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 59 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.55 | xG | 0.92 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Alaves | Metric | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.06 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 6.80 (better) |
| 10.80 | Total shots | 16.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.60 | Corners | 5.40 (better) |
| 38.2 | Possession % | 58.4 (better) |
| 309 | Passes | 577 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.20 | Fouls | 10.20 (better) |
| 4.60 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Alaves wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Atletico Madrid wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid1–22026-10-10
- Atletico Madrid v Alaves1–02026-01-18
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid1–12025-08-30
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |