Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5DLLDL17th0–1Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5WLWWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Al Taawon
Al-Qadisiyah FC
6
Shots
23
2
Shots on target
9
3
Corners
15
7
Fouls
13
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
264
Passes
628
29%
Possession %
71%
0.48
xG
2.21
14%
19%
68%
1 · Al TaawonXAl-Qadisiyah FC · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%
Likely score
1-2 10%
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.39
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Al Taawon
13.8%
7.26
6.60 Dafabet
15.2%
-1.4
Match result
Draw
18.6%
5.38
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
-1.4
Match result
Al-Qadisiyah FC
67.7%
1.48
1.48 Bet365
67.6%
+0.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.17
1.18 Betano
84.7%
+0.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.4%
6.93
6.50 BetVictor
15.4%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
65.8%
1.52
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
34.2%
2.92
2.88 Bet365
34.7%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
43.9%
2.28
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
+1.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
56.1%
1.78
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.8%
1.73
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+0.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.2%
2.37
2.40 William Hill
41.7%
+0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Qadisiyah FC favoured against Al Taawon
Our model makes Al Taawon 14% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 68%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Al Taawon against 2.39 for Al-Qadisiyah FC — a commanding edge to Al-Qadisiyah FC on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Qadisiyah FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Taawon
Metric
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.20
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
2.20
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.08
Expected goals (xG)
3.03 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.25
Shots on target
5.60 (better)
15.75 (better)
Total shots
14.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.75 (better)
Corners
4.60
60.5 (better)
Possession %
55.8
477
Passes
515 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.00
Fouls
11.00
3.25
Offsides
1.80 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Al Taawon v 
Al-Qadisiyah FC