Al Shamal v Al-Hilal Saudi FC

17th3–11st

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Shamal		Al-Hilal Saudi FC
13	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	1
23	Fouls	9
5	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
333	Passes	466
42%	Possession %	58%
2.84	xG	1.52

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%
Likely score: 0-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.84 – 1.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Shamal	15.7%	6.39	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	-3.4
Match result	Draw	22.8%	4.38	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.6
Match result	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	61.5%	1.63	1.91 Dafabet	52.4%	+9.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.2%	1.31	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.8%	4.21	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+9.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.4%	1.94	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.6%	2.06	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	+17.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.3%	3.41	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-16.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.7%	1.42	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+17.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.9%	2.05	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-16.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.1%	1.96	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+11.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC favoured against Al Shamal

Our model makes Al Shamal 16% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 23% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62%. The goal projection is 0.84 for Al Shamal against 1.89 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a commanding edge to Al-Hilal Saudi FC on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 12%; 0-2 12%; 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Al Shamal and Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al Shamal		Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4	Played	11
1-2-1	W-D-L	10-0-1
1.25	Pts / game	2.73
1.00	Goals for / game	2.91
0.75	Goals against / game	0.82
25%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	36%
25%	Clean sheets	55%
50%	Failed to score	9%
1-1-0	Home record	5-0-1
0-1-1	Away record	5-0-0
L1	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Shamal · Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	16.4
3.7	Shots on target	5.4
4.3	Corners	6.6
3.00	Cards	1.29
12.0	Fouls	10.7
50	Possession %	56
1.32	xG	2.50
3 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.7	Shots	8.6
4.0	Shots on target	3.4
2.0	Corners	3.3
0.33	Cards	2.57
7.7	Fouls	13.7
50	Possession %	44
1.38	xG	0.96
3 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Shamal	Metric	Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.20	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.75 (better)
0.58	Expected goals (xG)	2.45 (better)
	Big chances
2.33	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
10.33	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.33	Corners	9.75 (better)
57.3	Possession %	59.0 (better)
514 (better)	Passes	478
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	9.50
0.67 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	0.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Shamal wins: 1
Draws: 0
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al Shamal v Al-Hilal Saudi FC3–12026-10-27

AFC Champions League Elite table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al Ain	4	4	0	0	+11	12	Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2	Vissel Kobe	4	4	0	0	+5	12	Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3	Kashima	4	3	1	0	+10	10	Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5	Esteghlal FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	4	2	2	0	+6	8	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8	Gamba Osaka	4	2	2	0	+5	8	Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9	Al-Ahli Jeddah	4	2	2	0	+3	8	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10	Kashiwa Reysol	4	2	1	1	+5	7	Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	4	2	1	1	+3	7	SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12	Johor Darul Takzim FC	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13	Kyoto Sanga	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14	Jeonbuk Motors	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15	Beijing Guoan	4	2	1	1	0	7	Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16	Al-Nassr	3	2	0	1	+2	6	Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17	Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	+1	5	Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18	Neftchi	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19	Daejeon Citizen	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20	Al-Ittihad FC	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21	Công An Nhân Dân	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22	Buriram United	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23	Al-Wasl FC	3	1	0	2	-2	3	Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25	Port FC	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26	Tractor Sazi	4	0	2	2	-2	2	Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27	Pakhtakor	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28	Al Sadd	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29	Ratchaburi	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30	Pohang Steelers	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31	Al-Gharafa	4	0	0	4	-8	0	Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32	Newcastle Jets	4	0	0	4	-13	0	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4