Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5WWDWD10th2–2Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5LWLDW15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Al Shabab
Al-Faisaly FC
17
Shots
11
7
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
3
15
Fouls
13
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
368
Passes
391
48%
Possession %
52%
1.31
xG
1.56
43%
27%
30%
1 · Al ShababXAl-Faisaly FC · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Al Shabab 43%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Al Shabab
42.6%
2.35
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-18.0
Match result
Draw
27.1%
3.70
4.20 Dafabet
23.8%
+3.2
Match result
Al-Faisaly FC
30.4%
3.29
5.00 Betano
20.0%
+10.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.7%
1.32
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-6.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.3%
4.12
5.20 Betfair
19.2%
+5.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
50.5%
1.98
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-10.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
49.5%
2.02
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
+7.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.4%
3.52
2.57 Betano
38.9%
-10.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.6%
1.40
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.0%
1.82
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.0%
2.22
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al Shabab favoured against Al-Faisaly FC
Our model makes Al Shabab 43% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Al-Faisaly FC at 30%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Al Shabab against 1.21 for Al-Faisaly FC — a clear edge to Al Shabab on expected output. A combined 2.69 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Shabab
Metric
Al-Faisaly FC
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.50
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.50
1.68 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.70
—
Big chances *
—
3.80 (better)
Shots on target
1.75
10.60 (better)
Total shots
6.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.20 (better)
Corners
2.75
44.6
Possession %
45.8 (better)
369
Passes
393 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.80
Fouls
8.25 (better)
1.80 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.50
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Al Shabab v 
Al-Faisaly FC