Al Shabab v 
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match statistics
| Al Shabab | Al-Ahli Jeddah | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 4 | Offsides | 5 |
| 419 | Passes | 256 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 4.38 | xG | 0.95 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%
- Likely score
- 1-2 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.09 – 2.36
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Al-Ahli Jeddah
Why this price?
Back Al-Ahli Jeddah to win at 1.93 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 65% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.79. The offered 1.93 implies only 52%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Al Shabab 1.09, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.36.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al Shabab | 15.6% | 6.39 | 4.10 Dafabet | 24.4% | -8.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.2% | 5.22 | 4.15 Betano | 24.1% | -4.9 |
| Match result | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.89 Dafabet | 52.9% | +12.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.16 Betano | 86.2% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.7% | 7.31 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | -5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -6.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +0.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Ahli Jeddah favoured against Al Shabab
Our model makes Al Shabab 16% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Al-Ahli Jeddah at 65%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Al Shabab against 2.36 for Al-Ahli Jeddah — a commanding edge to Al-Ahli Jeddah on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Ahli Jeddah is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 9%
- 1-1 9%
- 1-3 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Al Shabab | Al-Ahli Jeddah | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 3-5-3 | W-D-L | 7-0-4 |
| 1.27 | Pts / game | 1.91 |
| 1.82 | Goals for / game | 2.55 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 91% |
| 64% | BTTS | 55% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 2-3-2 | Home record | 4-0-0 |
| 1-2-1 | Away record | 3-0-4 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Shabab · Al-Ahli Jeddah
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Shots on target | 8.3 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 0.75 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 55 |
| 2.88 | xG | 2.83 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 12.8 | Shots | 9.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 17.5 |
| 50 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.14 | xG | 1.51 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Al Shabab | Metric | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored | 3.33 (better) |
| 0.75 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 2.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.68 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.50 | Shots on target | 7.33 (better) |
| 17.25 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Corners | 2.67 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 51.7 (better) |
| 369 | Passes | 411 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.25 (better) | Fouls | 14.33 |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 4.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 0.67 (better) |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al Shabab wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 5.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Al Shabab v Al-Ahli Jeddah6–12026-10-30
- Al Shabab v Al-Ahli Jeddah2–52026-02-13
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Shabab1–12025-10-17
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |