Al Riyadh v 
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Match statistics
| Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 27 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 14 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 430 | Passes | 552 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| 1.37 | xG | 5.13 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 48%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%
- Likely score
- 0-2 10%
- Expected goals
- 0.88 – 2.70
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Al-Qadisiyah FC +0.25
Why this price?
Back Al-Qadisiyah FC +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.22 with Bet365 — Al-Qadisiyah FC starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 90% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 87%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.15. The offered 1.22 implies only 82%, so the price is 6.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Al Riyadh 0.88, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.70.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al Riyadh | 9.3% | 10.71 | 8.50 BetVictor | 11.8% | -2.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 15.2% | 6.58 | 5.80 Dafabet | 17.2% | -2.1 |
| Match result | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +0.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.14 Betano | 87.7% | -0.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.4% | 8.05 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | -3.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.90 BetVictor | 34.5% | -3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.10 Betano | 47.6% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | -3.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -2.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.1% | 2.22 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -0.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Qadisiyah FC favoured against Al Riyadh
Our model makes Al Riyadh 9% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 15% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 75%. The goal projection is 0.88 for Al Riyadh against 2.70 for Al-Qadisiyah FC — a commanding edge to Al-Qadisiyah FC on expected output. A combined 3.58 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Qadisiyah FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 25% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-2 10%
- 0-3 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 1-3 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Al Riyadh | Al-Qadisiyah FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 12 |
| 3-3-5 | W-D-L | 9-1-2 |
| 1.09 | Pts / game | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 2.67 |
| 2.27 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 55% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 36% | BTTS | 50% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 3-0-2 | Home record | 3-1-2 |
| 0-3-3 | Away record | 6-0-0 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Riyadh · Al-Qadisiyah FC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.0 | Shots | 18.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 8.4 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 50 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.30 | xG | 3.03 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 16.0 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 1.20 |
| 7.8 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 50 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.97 | xG | 1.52 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Al Riyadh | Metric | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.50 (better) | Goals conceded | 0.60 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.74 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 13.00 | Total shots | 15.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 | Corners | 6.60 (better) |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 61.0 (better) |
| 392 | Passes | 575 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 | Fouls | 10.80 (better) |
| 2.25 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al Riyadh wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC0–62026-10-29
- Al Riyadh v Al-Qadisiyah FC0–42026-04-29
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Riyadh4–02026-01-04
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |