Al Quwa Al Jawiya v 
Pakhtakor
Match statistics
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Pakhtakor | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 316 | Passes | 430 |
| 43% | Possession % | 57% |
| 0.40 | xG | 1.04 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Pakhtakor 54%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.03 – 1.77
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | -13.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | +6.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -9.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +1.6 |
| Match result | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.65 Dafabet | 27.4% | -6.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Pakhtakor | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.21 Dafabet | 45.2% | +8.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.38 BetVictor | 72.5% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -8.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | +7.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.95 William Hill | 51.3% | -5.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Pakhtakor favoured against Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Our model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya 21% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 25% and Pakhtakor at 54%. The goal projection is 1.03 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya against 1.77 for Pakhtakor — a substantial edge to Pakhtakor on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 10%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Pakhtakor | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 5 |
| 1-0-3 | W-D-L | 1-2-2 |
| 0.75 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 2.25 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 50% | BTTS | 60% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1-0-1 | Home record | 1-1-1 |
| 0-0-2 | Away record | 0-1-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Pakhtakor
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 2.7 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 7.0 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 43 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.17 | xG | 1.54 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 15.7 | Shots | 12.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 8.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 0.67 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.07 | xG | 1.42 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Metric | Pakhtakor |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.75 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 1.50 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 6.50 | Total shots | 19.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 43.5 | Possession % | 46.0 (better) |
| 429 | Passes | 449 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 2.50 (better) | Fouls | 9.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 5.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Pakhtakor wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Pakhtakor1–02026-10-26
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 12 | Al Ain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 | Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Kashima | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 | Kashima won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 8 | Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 | Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3 |
| 17 | Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Neftchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Neftchi won 1 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Al-Ittihad FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Buriram United won 0 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Al-Wasl FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Port FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Port FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Pohang Steelers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 | Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |