Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd

2nd1–128th

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Qadisiyah FC		Al Sadd
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	2
9	Corners	4
18	Fouls	8
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
613	Passes	323
66%	Possession %	34%
0.93	xG	1.13

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 55%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.82 – 1.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Qadisiyah FC	72.3%	1.38	1.64 Dafabet	61.0%	+11.3
Match result	Draw	15.6%	6.39	4.40 Dafabet	22.7%	-7.1
Match result	Al Sadd	12.1%	8.30	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.7%	1.10	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.3%	10.74	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	75.3%	1.33	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+9.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	24.7%	4.04	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	-16.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	55.4%	1.80	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+22.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	44.6%	2.24	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-20.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.6%	1.57	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	+9.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.4%	2.75	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Qadisiyah FC favoured against Al Sadd

Our model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 16% and Al Sadd at 12%. The goal projection is 2.82 for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 1.12 for Al Sadd — a commanding edge to Al-Qadisiyah FC on expected output. A combined 3.94 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Qadisiyah FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 3-1 8%; 2-0 8%; 3-0 7%; 1-1 6%

This season

Season records for Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Sadd
Al-Qadisiyah FC		Al Sadd
12	Played	4
9-1-2	W-D-L	0-2-2
2.33	Pts / game	0.50
2.67	Goals for / game	0.25
1.00	Goals against / game	1.50
67%	Over 2.5	25%
50%	BTTS	25%
42%	Clean sheets	25%
8%	Failed to score	75%
3-1-2	Home record	0-1-1
6-0-0	Away record	0-1-1
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Qadisiyah FC · Al Sadd

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.9	Shots	9.7
6.6	Shots on target	2.3
7.3	Corners	4.0
1.13	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	12.0
62	Possession %	40
2.56	xG	0.87
8 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	14.3
3.4	Shots on target	4.7
4.1	Corners	6.7
1.63	Cards	2.33
9.8	Fouls	13.0
38	Possession %	60
1.40	xG	1.54
8 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Qadisiyah FC	Metric	Al Sadd
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
2.82 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.51
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
13.60	Total shots	16.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	5.60 (better)
57.8	Possession %	60.4 (better)
547	Passes	560 (better)
	Tackles
10.20 (better)	Fouls	13.00
2.40 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins: 0
Draws: 1
Al Sadd wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd1–12026-10-26

AFC Champions League Elite table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al Ain	4	4	0	0	+11	12	Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2	Vissel Kobe	4	4	0	0	+5	12	Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3	Kashima	4	3	1	0	+10	10	Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5	Esteghlal FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	4	2	2	0	+6	8	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8	Gamba Osaka	4	2	2	0	+5	8	Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9	Al-Ahli Jeddah	4	2	2	0	+3	8	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10	Kashiwa Reysol	4	2	1	1	+5	7	Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	4	2	1	1	+3	7	SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12	Johor Darul Takzim FC	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13	Kyoto Sanga	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14	Jeonbuk Motors	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15	Beijing Guoan	4	2	1	1	0	7	Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16	Al-Nassr	3	2	0	1	+2	6	Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17	Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	+1	5	Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18	Neftchi	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19	Daejeon Citizen	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20	Al-Ittihad FC	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21	Công An Nhân Dân	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22	Buriram United	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23	Al-Wasl FC	3	1	0	2	-2	3	Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25	Port FC	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26	Tractor Sazi	4	0	2	2	-2	2	Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27	Pakhtakor	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28	Al Sadd	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29	Ratchaburi	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30	Pohang Steelers	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31	Al-Gharafa	4	0	0	4	-8	0	Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32	Newcastle Jets	4	0	0	4	-13	0	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4