Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2nd2–31st

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Qadisiyah FC		Al-Hilal Saudi FC
14	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	9
6	Corners	4
15	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
464	Passes	436
52%	Possession %	48%
0.84	xG	2.89

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.81

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Al-Hilal Saudi FC +0.25

1.75Bet365 · fair 1.63 · qualifies at 1.68+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Al-Hilal Saudi FC +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.63. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.60, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Qadisiyah FC	34.0%	2.94	3.15 Betano	31.7%	+2.3
Match result	Draw	23.4%	4.27	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-1.6
Match result	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	42.6%	2.35	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.9%	1.16	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.1%	7.12	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.3%	1.51	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.7%	2.97	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.5%	2.25	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.5%	1.80	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.3%	1.49	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.7%	3.06	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC favoured against Al-Qadisiyah FC

Our model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 43%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 1.81 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a slight edge to Al-Hilal Saudi FC on expected output. A combined 3.41 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC		Al-Hilal Saudi FC
12	Played	11
9-1-2	W-D-L	10-0-1
2.33	Pts / game	2.73
2.67	Goals for / game	2.91
1.00	Goals against / game	0.82
67%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	36%
42%	Clean sheets	55%
8%	Failed to score	9%
3-1-2	Home record	5-0-1
6-0-0	Away record	5-0-0
W1	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Qadisiyah FC · Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.4	Shots	19.8
8.4	Shots on target	6.5
6.8	Corners	9.0
1.00	Cards	1.25
10.8	Fouls	10.8
61	Possession %	57
3.03	xG	3.01
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	7.5
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
4.6	Corners	3.0
1.20	Cards	2.25
9.4	Fouls	13.3
39	Possession %	43
1.52	xG	0.70
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Qadisiyah FC	Metric	Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.20	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.38	Expected goals (xG)	2.78 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
15.00	Total shots	17.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	7.00 (better)
62.4 (better)	Possession %	58.2
420	Passes	480 (better)
	Tackles
7.80 (better)	Fouls	12.60
2.25	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20	Yellow cards	1.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins: 0
Draws: 2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–32026-10-23
Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC2–22026-01-29
Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Qadisiyah FC2–22025-09-13

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5