Al-Nassr v NEOM

3rd1–05th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Nassr		NEOM
17	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	1
14	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	4
479	Passes	344
58%	Possession %	42%
2.86	xG	0.48

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Al-Nassr 57%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.99 – 1.14

Advised bets

VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Al-Nassr -1

1.58Marathonbet · fair 1.45 · qualifies at 1.49+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Al-Nassr -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Marathonbet — Al-Nassr must win by more than 1 goal.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 86%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.45. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Nassr 1.99, NEOM 1.14.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.8%	1.62	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.2%	1.69	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.8%	2.45	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-5.7
Match result	NEOM	20.8%	4.80	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+5.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.70	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.5%	1.65	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.5%	2.54	2.62 Betano	38.2%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.2%	2.62	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-3.8
Match result	Al-Nassr	56.6%	1.76	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-11.4
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.44	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Nassr favoured against NEOM

Our model makes Al-Nassr 57% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 23% and NEOM at 21%. The goal projection is 1.99 for Al-Nassr against 1.14 for NEOM — a substantial edge to Al-Nassr on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Al-Nassr and NEOM
Al-Nassr		NEOM
11	Played	12
9-1-1	W-D-L	7-1-4
2.55	Pts / game	1.83
2.55	Goals for / game	1.50
1.00	Goals against / game	0.83
82%	Over 2.5	33%
64%	BTTS	33%
36%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	33%
6-0-0	Home record	4-0-2
3-1-1	Away record	3-1-2
W4	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Nassr · NEOM

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	11.2
6.3	Shots on target	3.4
6.3	Corners	5.2
1.25	Cards	1.40
16.5	Fouls	13.2
55	Possession %	56
2.60	xG	1.22
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	10.8
2.3	Shots on target	2.6
3.3	Corners	2.6
2.00	Cards	1.80
11.3	Fouls	12.0
45	Possession %	44
1.12	xG	1.16
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Nassr	Metric	NEOM
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.97 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.55
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
16.40 (better)	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
7.60 (better)	Corners	5.80
59.6 (better)	Possession %	56.4
489 (better)	Passes	466
	Tackles
10.80	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.80	Offsides	2.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Nassr wins: 3
Draws: 0
NEOM wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Al-Nassr v NEOM1–02026-10-20
Al-Nassr v NEOM1–02026-03-07
NEOM v Al-Nassr1–32025-11-08

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5