Al-Nassr v Al Kholood

3rd5–311th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Nassr		Al Kholood
16	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	0
18	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
392	Passes	341
54%	Possession %	46%
3.70	xG	2.07

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Al-Nassr 72%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.69 – 1.02

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Both teams to score — Yes

2.00Betfair · fair 1.84 · qualifies at 1.93+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back both teams to score at 2.00 with Betfair — each side scores at least once.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.84. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 8.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Nassr 2.69, Al Kholood 1.02.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Nassr	72.3%	1.38	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-4.1
Match result	Draw	16.2%	6.19	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+0.8
Match result	Al Kholood	11.6%	8.63	10.50 Betano	9.5%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.8%	1.13	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.2%	8.90	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.5%	1.40	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+4.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.5%	3.51	3.00 Betano	33.3%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.7%	1.97	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.3%	2.03	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.9%	1.67	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+9.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.1%	2.50	1.95 BetVictor	51.3%	-11.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Nassr favoured against Al Kholood

Our model makes Al-Nassr 72% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 16% and Al Kholood at 12%. The goal projection is 2.69 for Al-Nassr against 1.02 for Al Kholood — a commanding edge to Al-Nassr on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Nassr is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 2-0 9%; 3-1 8%; 3-0 8%; 1-1 7%

This season

Season records for Al-Nassr and Al Kholood
Al-Nassr		Al Kholood
11	Played	11
9-1-1	W-D-L	3-3-5
2.55	Pts / game	1.09
2.55	Goals for / game	1.55
1.00	Goals against / game	2.36
82%	Over 2.5	73%
64%	BTTS	73%
36%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	27%
6-0-0	Home record	3-0-2
3-1-1	Away record	0-3-3
W4	Streak	L5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Nassr · Al Kholood

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	14.5
6.3	Shots on target	4.5
6.3	Corners	4.3
1.25	Cards	1.25
16.5	Fouls	10.3
55	Possession %	47
2.60	xG	2.34
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	15.5
2.3	Shots on target	8.0
3.3	Corners	4.5
2.00	Cards	1.50
11.3	Fouls	11.8
45	Possession %	53
1.12	xG	3.03
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Nassr	Metric	Al Kholood
1.75 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.25 (better)	Goals conceded	2.75
2.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.02
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
16.25 (better)	Total shots	15.25
	Touches in opp. box
7.00	Corners	7.00
58.0 (better)	Possession %	50.0
460 (better)	Passes	393
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	11.75
3.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Nassr wins: 3
Draws: 0
Al Kholood wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Al-Nassr v Al Kholood5–32026-10-29
Al Kholood v Al-Nassr0–32026-01-30
Al-Nassr v Al Kholood2–02025-09-14

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5