Al Merreikh v Horoya

1–0aet, 3–5 pens

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Merreikh		Horoya
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Al Merreikh 45%
Likely score: 1-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.30 – 0.88

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Merreikh	45.5%	2.20	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-13.4
Match result	Draw	29.8%	3.36	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-0.5
Match result	Horoya	24.7%	4.04	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.6%	1.55	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.4%	2.83	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.1%	2.69	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.6%	5.67	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.4%	1.21	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.2%	2.31	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.8%	1.76	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al Merreikh favoured against Horoya

Our model makes Al Merreikh 45% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Horoya at 25%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Al Merreikh against 0.88 for Horoya — a clear edge to Al Merreikh on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 14%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 12%; 2-0 10%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Al Merreikh and Horoya
Al Merreikh		Horoya
4	Played	4
3-0-1	W-D-L	2-0-2
2.25	Pts / game	1.50
0.75	Goals for / game	1.00
0.25	Goals against / game	0.75
0%	Over 2.5	25%
0%	BTTS	25%
75%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	50%
2-0-0	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	0-0-2
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Merreikh · Horoya

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Merreikh	Metric	Horoya
0.67	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Merreikh wins: 1
Draws: 0
Horoya wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Al Merreikh v Horoya1–02026-10-24
Horoya v Al Merreikh1–02026-10-18