Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq

11th0–37th

15:05 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Kholood		Al-Ettifaq
19	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	8
5	Corners	2
9	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
404	Passes	376
53%	Possession %	47%
1.94	xG	1.32

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Al-Ettifaq 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.82

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Kholood	30.3%	3.30	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-7.2
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.20	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-4.0
Match result	Al-Ettifaq	45.9%	2.18	2.67 Betano	37.5%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.1%	1.19	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.9%	6.30	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.8%	2.72	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.0%	2.44	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+6.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.0%	1.70	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.4%	1.55	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.6%	2.81	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Ettifaq favoured against Al Kholood

Our model makes Al Kholood 30% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Al-Ettifaq at 46%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Al Kholood against 1.82 for Al-Ettifaq — a clear edge to Al-Ettifaq on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq
Al Kholood		Al-Ettifaq
11	Played	12
3-3-5	W-D-L	5-4-3
1.09	Pts / game	1.58
1.55	Goals for / game	1.50
2.36	Goals against / game	1.42
73%	Over 2.5	50%
73%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	42%
27%	Failed to score	17%
3-0-2	Home record	1-2-3
0-3-3	Away record	4-2-0
L5	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Kholood · Al-Ettifaq

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	12.4
4.5	Shots on target	5.4
4.3	Corners	5.4
1.25	Cards	3.00
10.3	Fouls	12.2
47	Possession %	51
2.34	xG	1.33
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	13.2
8.0	Shots on target	4.4
4.5	Corners	5.2
1.50	Cards	2.00
11.8	Fouls	12.6
53	Possession %	49
3.03	xG	1.95
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Kholood	Metric	Al-Ettifaq
1.20	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
2.04 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.17
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
15.40 (better)	Total shots	14.50
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	6.00
52.2	Possession %	55.0 (better)
421	Passes	430 (better)
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	13.25
0.80 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Kholood wins: 0
Draws: 0
Al-Ettifaq wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq0–32026-10-24
Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq1–22026-01-24
Al-Ettifaq v Al Kholood2–12025-08-28

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5