Al Khaleej Saihat v 
Al-Hazm
Match statistics
| Al Khaleej Saihat | Al-Hazm | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 510 | Passes | 326 |
| 61% | Possession % | 39% |
| 3.31 | xG | 0.91 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Al-Hazm 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.36 – 1.39
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5
Why this price?
Back Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Betano — Al Khaleej Saihat must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.95 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36, Al-Hazm 1.39.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al Khaleej Saihat | 35.9% | 2.78 | 2.18 Betano | 45.9% | -9.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.8% | 3.74 | 3.60 Betfair | 27.8% | -1.0 |
| Match result | Al-Hazm | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.50 Betano | 28.6% | +8.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -2.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | -2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.08 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | 3.20 Betano | 31.3% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.6% | 2.29 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -1.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm: too close to call
Our model makes Al Khaleej Saihat 36% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Al-Hazm at 37%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.39 for Al-Hazm — almost nothing to Al-Hazm on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-2 8%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Al Khaleej Saihat | Al-Hazm | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 3-6-3 | W-D-L | 2-4-6 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 0.83 |
| 1.17 | Goals for / game | 1.17 |
| 1.58 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 42% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 58% | BTTS | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-3-1 | Home record | 1-3-2 |
| 1-3-2 | Away record | 1-1-4 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Khaleej Saihat · Al-Hazm
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.8 | Shots | 10.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 49 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.86 | xG | 1.39 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 14.6 | Shots | 14.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 7.8 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 51 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.63 | xG | 2.28 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Al Khaleej Saihat | Metric | Al-Hazm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.27 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.24 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.20 | Shots on target | 3.40 (better) |
| 10.60 (better) | Total shots | 10.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 2.60 |
| 49.8 (better) | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 405 (better) | Passes | 319 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 2.40 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al Khaleej Saihat wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Al-Hazm wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm4–22026-10-29
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm2–12026-03-06
- Al-Hazm v Al Khaleej Saihat1–42025-11-06
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |