Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5DWWLW4th2–0Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5LLWDL8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Diriyah
20
Shots
12
7
Shots on target
1
8
Corners
7
7
Fouls
7
3
Yellow cards
5
0
Red cards
1
4
Offsides
0
388
Passes
392
49%
Possession %
51%
2.78
xG
0.95
46%
27%
26%
1 · Al-Ittihad FCXAl Diriyah · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Al-Ittihad FC 46%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Al-Ittihad FC
46.1%
2.17
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+1.6
Match result
Draw
27.5%
3.64
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+3.7
Match result
Al Diriyah
26.5%
3.78
3.95 Betano
25.3%
+1.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.39
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-12.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.9%
3.59
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+9.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.9%
2.18
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-17.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.1%
1.85
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+14.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.5%
4.08
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-17.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.5%
1.32
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+13.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.6%
1.98
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-14.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.4%
2.02
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+10.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Ittihad FC favoured against Al Diriyah
Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC 46% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Al Diriyah at 26%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.05 for Al Diriyah — a clear edge to Al-Ittihad FC on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Ittihad FC
Metric
Al Diriyah
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.60
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.60
Expected goals (xG)
1.60
—
Big chances *
—
5.80 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
15.40 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
5.60 (better)
56.4 (better)
Possession %
45.2
509 (better)
Passes
368
—
Tackles
—
10.40
Fouls
8.40 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
2.60
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.20 (better)
Yellow cards
1.60
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Al-Ittihad FC v 
Al Diriyah