Al-Ittihad FC v Al Ain

4th1–41st

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Ittihad FC		Al Ain
16	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	7
11	Corners	1
6	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
611	Passes	440
59%	Possession %	41%
1.08	xG	1.80

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Al Ain 38%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.71

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Ittihad FC	38.1%	2.63	2.33 Dafabet	42.9%	-4.8
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.25	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-3.5
Match result	Al Ain	38.4%	2.60	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.0%	1.16	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.0%	7.15	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.4%	1.51	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.6%	2.98	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.6%	2.24	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.4%	1.80	1.60 Betfair	62.5%	-7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.6%	1.48	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.4%	3.08	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Ittihad FC v Al Ain: too close to call

Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC 38% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 24% and Al Ain at 38%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.71 for Al Ain — almost nothing to Al Ain on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Al-Ittihad FC and Al Ain
Al-Ittihad FC		Al Ain
11	Played	3
7-3-1	W-D-L	1-0-2
2.18	Pts / game	1.00
1.91	Goals for / game	0.67
1.00	Goals against / game	4.00
55%	Over 2.5	100%
73%	BTTS	33%
27%	Clean sheets	0%
9%	Failed to score	67%
4-1-0	Home record	0-0-1
3-2-1	Away record	1-0-1
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Ittihad FC · Al Ain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	17.3
6.1	Shots on target	7.3
7.1	Corners	4.0
1.57	Cards	0.67
8.1	Fouls	13.7
57	Possession %	48
1.72	xG	1.85
7 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.3	Shots	10.7
4.1	Shots on target	4.3
3.9	Corners	5.3
2.29	Cards	0.67
11.4	Fouls	4.7
43	Possession %	52
1.50	xG	1.09
7 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Ittihad FC	Metric	Al Ain
2.00	Goals scored	2.00
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
2.13	Expected goals (xG)	2.61 (better)
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	6.00
16.60	Total shots	24.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.60	Corners	9.00 (better)
56.8	Possession %	58.5 (better)
488	Passes	527 (better)
	Tackles
8.80 (better)	Fouls	14.50
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Ittihad FC wins: 0
Draws: 0
Al Ain wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al-Ittihad FC v Al Ain1–42026-11-02

AFC Champions League Elite table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al Ain	4	4	0	0	+11	12	Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2	Vissel Kobe	4	4	0	0	+5	12	Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3	Kashima	4	3	1	0	+10	10	Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5	Esteghlal FC	4	3	0	1	+3	9	Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7	Al-Qadisiyah FC	4	2	2	0	+6	8	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8	Gamba Osaka	4	2	2	0	+5	8	Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9	Al-Ahli Jeddah	4	2	2	0	+3	8	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10	Kashiwa Reysol	4	2	1	1	+5	7	Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	4	2	1	1	+3	7	SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12	Johor Darul Takzim FC	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13	Kyoto Sanga	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14	Jeonbuk Motors	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15	Beijing Guoan	4	2	1	1	0	7	Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16	Al-Nassr	3	2	0	1	+2	6	Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17	Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	+1	5	Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18	Neftchi	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19	Daejeon Citizen	4	1	1	2	-2	4	Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20	Al-Ittihad FC	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21	Công An Nhân Dân	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22	Buriram United	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23	Al-Wasl FC	3	1	0	2	-2	3	Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25	Port FC	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26	Tractor Sazi	4	0	2	2	-2	2	Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27	Pakhtakor	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28	Al Sadd	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29	Ratchaburi	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30	Pohang Steelers	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31	Al-Gharafa	4	0	0	4	-8	0	Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32	Newcastle Jets	4	0	0	4	-13	0	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4