Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm

1st1–014th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC		Al-Hazm
21	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	2
10	Corners	0
7	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
495	Passes	313
63%	Possession %	37%
3.13	xG	0.52

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.52 – 0.84

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 3.5

2.10Betano · fair 2.00 · qualifies at 2.08+ · 1.13u

Why this price?

Back under 3.5 goals at 2.10 with Betano — 3 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 5.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.13 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.52, Al-Hazm 0.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.4%	2.11	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-17.1
Match result	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	73.4%	1.36	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-18.3
Match result	Draw	16.7%	6.00	14.00 Betfair	7.1%	+9.5
Match result	Al-Hazm	9.9%	10.09	31.00 Betfair	3.2%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.3%	1.17	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.8%	6.78	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	+3.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.2%	1.53	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-13.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.8%	2.87	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.2%	2.31	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-14.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.8%	1.76	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+13.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.6%	1.90	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+17.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC favoured against Al-Hazm

Our model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 17% and Al-Hazm at 10%. The goal projection is 2.52 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 0.84 for Al-Hazm — a commanding edge to Al-Hilal Saudi FC on expected output. A combined 3.36 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 3-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-1 8%

This season

Season records for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm
Al-Hilal Saudi FC		Al-Hazm
11	Played	12
10-0-1	W-D-L	2-4-6
2.73	Pts / game	0.83
2.91	Goals for / game	1.17
0.82	Goals against / game	1.67
64%	Over 2.5	50%
36%	BTTS	67%
55%	Clean sheets	17%
9%	Failed to score	25%
5-0-1	Home record	1-3-2
5-0-0	Away record	1-1-4
W5	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Al-Hazm

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.8	Shots	10.2
6.5	Shots on target	4.0
9.0	Corners	2.8
1.25	Cards	2.20
10.8	Fouls	13.8
57	Possession %	41
3.01	xG	1.39
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.5	Shots	14.2
3.3	Shots on target	5.2
3.0	Corners	7.8
2.25	Cards	1.00
13.3	Fouls	10.8
43	Possession %	59
0.70	xG	2.28
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC	Metric	Al-Hazm
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.30 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.13
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
18.80 (better)	Total shots	10.80
	Touches in opp. box
8.60 (better)	Corners	4.00
59.4 (better)	Possession %	42.6
488 (better)	Passes	340
	Tackles
12.60 (better)	Fouls	15.60
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.20	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins: 3
Draws: 0
Al-Hazm wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 0%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm1–02026-10-19
Al-Hazm v Al-Hilal Saudi FC0–32026-05-02
Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm3–02026-01-08

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5