Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st2–0Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5LLLWL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Fateh
23
Shots
4
6
Shots on target
0
13
Corners
2
9
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
540
Passes
256
68%
Possession %
32%
3.72
xG
0.28
78%
14%
1 · Al-Hilal Saudi FCXAl-Fateh · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
48%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.77 – 0.79
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
78.3%
1.28
1.12 Betano
89.3%
-11.0
Match result
Draw
14.0%
7.12
14.00 Dafabet
7.1%
+6.9
Match result
Al-Fateh
7.7%
12.99
24.00 Betano
4.2%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.4%
1.15
1.06 Betano
94.3%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.6%
7.92
11.00 Bet365
9.1%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
69.0%
1.45
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
-12.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
31.0%
3.23
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
+11.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
47.7%
2.10
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-16.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.3%
1.91
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+14.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.6%
1.94
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.4%
2.06
1.91 BetVictor
52.4%
-3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC favoured against Al-Fateh
Our model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 14% and Al-Fateh at 8%. The goal projection is 2.77 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 0.79 for Al-Fateh — a commanding edge to Al-Hilal Saudi FC on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 22% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Metric
Al-Fateh
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
3.20
2.54 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.23
—
Big chances *
—
6.40 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
17.40 (better)
Total shots
12.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.60 (better)
Corners
6.20
56.8 (better)
Possession %
42.2
470 (better)
Passes
298
—
Tackles
—
10.20 (better)
Fouls
12.60
2.20
Offsides
1.60 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.25 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Al-Hilal Saudi FC v 
Al-Fateh