Al-Fayha v 
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match statistics
| Al-Fayha | Al-Ahli Jeddah | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 8 |
| 385 | Passes | 520 |
| 43% | Possession % | 57% |
| 0.70 | xG | 4.18 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%
- Likely score
- 0-2 11%
- Expected goals
- 0.91 – 2.14
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Al-Ahli Jeddah +0.25
Why this price?
Back Al-Ahli Jeddah +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.23 with Bet365 — Al-Ahli Jeddah starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 84% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 84%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.19. The offered 1.23 implies only 81%, so the price is 3.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Al-Fayha 0.91, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.14.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +2.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.00 William Hill | 50.0% | -3.3 |
| Match result | Al-Fayha | 14.3% | 6.98 | 7.60 Dafabet | 13.2% | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 20.7% | 4.84 | 5.20 Dafabet | 19.2% | +1.4 |
| Match result | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -2.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.6% | 5.37 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -4.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Ahli Jeddah favoured against Al-Fayha
Our model makes Al-Fayha 14% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Al-Ahli Jeddah at 65%. The goal projection is 0.91 for Al-Fayha against 2.14 for Al-Ahli Jeddah — a commanding edge to Al-Ahli Jeddah on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Ahli Jeddah is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-2 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 1-1 10%
- 0-1 10%
- 0-3 8%
This season
| Al-Fayha | Al-Ahli Jeddah | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 11 |
| 2-5-5 | W-D-L | 7-0-4 |
| 0.92 | Pts / game | 1.91 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 2.55 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 91% |
| 67% | BTTS | 55% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 4-0-0 |
| 0-3-3 | Away record | 3-0-4 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Fayha · Al-Ahli Jeddah
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.2 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 8.3 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 0.75 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 55 |
| 0.95 | xG | 2.83 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 14.8 | Shots | 9.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 17.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 45 |
| 2.17 | xG | 1.51 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Al-Fayha | Metric | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.08 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 | Shots on target | 6.50 (better) |
| 11.80 | Total shots | 14.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.20 | Corners | 4.25 (better) |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 47.3 (better) |
| 402 (better) | Passes | 377 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.00 (better) | Fouls | 17.75 |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.50 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al-Fayha wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah2–32026-10-19
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah1–12026-04-08
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Fayha2–02025-12-30
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |