Al-Fateh v Al Shabab

16th1–310th

14:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Fateh		Al Shabab
16	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	10
8	Corners	7
14	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
296	Passes	446
40%	Possession %	60%
1.07	xG	3.43

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Al Shabab 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.42

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Al-Fateh -0.5

3.00Betano · fair 2.69 · qualifies at 2.77+ · 1.43u

Why this price?

Back Al-Fateh -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Betano — Al-Fateh must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.69. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Fateh 1.19, Al Shabab 1.42.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.4%	2.07	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-14.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.6%	1.94	2.60 BetVictor	38.5%	+13.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.6%	3.76	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-14.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.4%	1.36	1.62 BetVictor	61.7%	+11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	1.87	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-13.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.6%	2.14	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	+9.6
Match result	Al-Fateh	30.8%	3.24	3.10 Betano	32.3%	-1.4
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.65	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+1.7
Match result	Al Shabab	41.8%	2.39	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.85	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al Shabab favoured against Al-Fateh

Our model makes Al-Fateh 31% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Al Shabab at 42%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Al-Fateh against 1.42 for Al Shabab — a slight edge to Al Shabab on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Al-Fateh and Al Shabab
Al-Fateh		Al Shabab
12	Played	11
1-3-8	W-D-L	3-5-3
0.50	Pts / game	1.27
0.83	Goals for / game	1.82
2.08	Goals against / game	1.36
58%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	64%
17%	Clean sheets	27%
50%	Failed to score	27%
0-1-5	Home record	2-3-2
1-2-3	Away record	1-2-1
L3	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Fateh · Al Shabab

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.4	Shots	18.0
2.8	Shots on target	7.5
6.0	Corners	4.5
2.60	Cards	2.75
13.4	Fouls	11.8
41	Possession %	51
0.97	xG	2.88
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.6	Shots	12.8
7.0	Shots on target	3.5
7.4	Corners	4.5
1.20	Cards	2.50
13.8	Fouls	12.5
59	Possession %	50
2.55	xG	1.14
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Fateh	Metric	Al Shabab
0.60	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	1.27 (better)
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
10.80 (better)	Total shots	10.60
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	5.20 (better)
43.0	Possession %	45.2 (better)
335	Passes	369 (better)
	Tackles
12.60	Fouls	9.80 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Fateh wins: 1
Draws: 1
Al Shabab wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Al-Fateh v Al Shabab1–32026-10-22
Al Shabab v Al-Fateh1–12026-04-28
Al-Fateh v Al Shabab2–02026-01-03

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5