Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr

15th1–33rd

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Faisaly FC		Al-Nassr
12	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	6
13	Fouls	19
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	4
351	Passes	356
45%	Possession %	55%
1.28	xG	0.62

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Al-Nassr 69%
Likely score: 0-2 10%
Expected goals: 0.94 – 2.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Faisaly FC	12.6%	7.91	11.25 Betano	8.9%	+3.8
Match result	Draw	18.2%	5.50	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+4.9
Match result	Al-Nassr	69.2%	1.45	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-11.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.0%	1.18	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.0%	6.67	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.8%	1.54	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.2%	2.84	2.95 Betano	33.9%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.8%	2.33	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.2%	1.75	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.9%	1.79	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.1%	2.27	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Nassr favoured against Al-Faisaly FC

Our model makes Al-Faisaly FC 13% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 18% and Al-Nassr at 69%. The goal projection is 0.94 for Al-Faisaly FC against 2.40 for Al-Nassr — a commanding edge to Al-Nassr on expected output. A combined 3.34 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Nassr is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 1-1 8%; 0-3 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr
Al-Faisaly FC		Al-Nassr
12	Played	11
2-4-6	W-D-L	9-1-1
0.83	Pts / game	2.55
1.08	Goals for / game	2.55
2.00	Goals against / game	1.00
58%	Over 2.5	82%
67%	BTTS	64%
25%	Clean sheets	36%
25%	Failed to score	0%
1-2-3	Home record	6-0-0
1-2-3	Away record	3-1-1
L1	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Faisaly FC · Al-Nassr

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	15.0
4.0	Shots on target	6.3
3.4	Corners	6.3
1.60	Cards	1.25
11.2	Fouls	16.5
48	Possession %	55
1.38	xG	2.60
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	9.0
5.0	Shots on target	2.3
5.8	Corners	3.3
1.80	Cards	2.00
14.6	Fouls	11.3
52	Possession %	45
1.52	xG	1.12
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Faisaly FC	Metric	Al-Nassr
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.25 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	1.83 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
8.75	Total shots	16.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.25	Corners	7.60 (better)
47.3	Possession %	60.6 (better)
397	Passes	489 (better)
	Tackles
7.75 (better)	Fouls	10.80
2.25 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Faisaly FC wins: 0
Draws: 0
Al-Nassr wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al-Faisaly FC v Al-Nassr1–32026-10-23

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5