Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad FC

7th1–44th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al-Ettifaq		Al-Ittihad FC
9	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	7
11	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
356	Passes	478
43%	Possession %	57%
1.83	xG	2.98

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Al-Ittihad FC 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.85

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Al-Ettifaq -0.75

3.42Marathonbet · fair 3.10 · qualifies at 3.19+ · 1.08u

Why this price?

Back Al-Ettifaq -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 3.42 with Marathonbet — Al-Ettifaq must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 22% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.10. The offered 3.42 implies only 29%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.08 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.35, Al-Ittihad FC 1.85.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Ettifaq	27.7%	3.62	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-3.6
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.22	4.00 Betano	25.0%	-1.3
Match result	Al-Ittihad FC	48.6%	2.06	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.4%	1.20	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.6%	6.04	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.1%	1.61	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.9%	2.64	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.9%	2.51	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.1%	1.66	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.0%	1.59	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.0%	2.71	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Ittihad FC favoured against Al-Ettifaq

Our model makes Al-Ettifaq 28% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Al-Ittihad FC at 49%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Al-Ettifaq against 1.85 for Al-Ittihad FC — a clear edge to Al-Ittihad FC on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ettifaq		Al-Ittihad FC
12	Played	11
5-4-3	W-D-L	7-3-1
1.58	Pts / game	2.18
1.50	Goals for / game	1.91
1.42	Goals against / game	1.00
50%	Over 2.5	55%
50%	BTTS	73%
42%	Clean sheets	27%
17%	Failed to score	9%
1-2-3	Home record	4-1-0
4-2-0	Away record	3-2-1
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Ettifaq · Al-Ittihad FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	14.0
5.4	Shots on target	5.8
5.4	Corners	6.5
3.00	Cards	2.00
12.2	Fouls	9.0
51	Possession %	55
1.33	xG	2.07
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	11.0
4.4	Shots on target	4.3
5.2	Corners	5.5
2.00	Cards	3.25
12.6	Fouls	11.8
49	Possession %	45
1.95	xG	1.46
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Ettifaq	Metric	Al-Ittihad FC
1.00	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.21	Expected goals (xG)	1.67 (better)
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
15.00 (better)	Total shots	13.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.60
54.8 (better)	Possession %	52.0
430	Passes	465 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.20 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Ettifaq wins: 1
Draws: 0
Al-Ittihad FC wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5