Al Diriyah v NEOM

8th1–25th

14:50 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Diriyah		NEOM
20	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	5
2	Corners	5
9	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
346	Passes	533
41%	Possession %	59%
1.30	xG	1.84

Over 1.5: 61%
Over 2.5: 33%
Over 3.5: 15%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: NEOM 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.05

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Diriyah	32.1%	3.12	2.75 Betano	36.4%	-4.3
Match result	Draw	31.9%	3.13	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	+4.5
Match result	NEOM	36.0%	2.78	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	60.9%	1.64	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-15.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	39.1%	2.56	3.90 Betano	25.6%	+13.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	33.1%	3.02	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-18.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	66.9%	1.50	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+16.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	14.8%	6.75	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-14.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	85.2%	1.17	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+11.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.3%	2.42	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-16.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.7%	1.70	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+12.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al Diriyah v NEOM: too close to call

Our model makes Al Diriyah 32% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 32% and NEOM at 36%. The goal projection is 0.98 for Al Diriyah against 1.05 for NEOM — almost nothing to NEOM on expected output. A combined 2.03 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 14%; 0-1 13%; 1-0 12%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Al Diriyah and NEOM
Al Diriyah		NEOM
12	Played	12
4-3-5	W-D-L	7-1-4
1.25	Pts / game	1.83
0.83	Goals for / game	1.50
1.08	Goals against / game	0.83
33%	Over 2.5	33%
33%	BTTS	33%
33%	Clean sheets	33%
42%	Failed to score	33%
1-3-3	Home record	4-0-2
3-0-2	Away record	3-1-2
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Diriyah · NEOM

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	11.2
3.2	Shots on target	3.4
4.6	Corners	5.2
2.80	Cards	1.40
8.4	Fouls	13.2
49	Possession %	56
1.28	xG	1.22
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	10.8
5.6	Shots on target	2.6
6.8	Corners	2.6
1.60	Cards	1.80
11.0	Fouls	12.0
51	Possession %	44
1.94	xG	1.16
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Diriyah	Metric	NEOM
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
1.62 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.35
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	3.25 (better)
12.20	Total shots	12.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	6.75 (better)
48.6	Possession %	56.3 (better)
389	Passes	466 (better)
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	13.50
2.20 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Diriyah wins: 0
Draws: 0
NEOM wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al Diriyah v NEOM1–22026-10-30

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5