Al Diriyah v Al Taawon

8th1–117th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Diriyah		Al Taawon
9	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	2
11	Fouls	5
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
476	Passes	343
59%	Possession %	41%
2.07	xG	0.98

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Al Diriyah 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.07

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Diriyah	37.8%	2.64	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-9.3
Match result	Draw	29.9%	3.34	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+3.3
Match result	Al Taawon	32.2%	3.10	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.7%	1.50	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-13.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.3%	3.00	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+10.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.4%	2.54	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-16.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.6%	1.65	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+13.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.3%	5.18	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-13.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.7%	1.24	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	2.15	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.6%	1.87	2.25 Betano	44.4%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al Diriyah v Al Taawon: too close to call

Our model makes Al Diriyah 38% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Al Taawon at 32%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Al Diriyah against 1.07 for Al Taawon — a slight edge to Al Diriyah on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Al Diriyah and Al Taawon
Al Diriyah		Al Taawon
12	Played	12
4-3-5	W-D-L	0-5-7
1.25	Pts / game	0.42
0.83	Goals for / game	0.50
1.08	Goals against / game	1.67
33%	Over 2.5	42%
33%	BTTS	42%
33%	Clean sheets	25%
42%	Failed to score	58%
1-3-3	Home record	0-4-2
3-0-2	Away record	0-1-5
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Diriyah · Al Taawon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	9.0
3.2	Shots on target	2.6
4.6	Corners	4.0
2.80	Cards	2.00
8.4	Fouls	10.2
49	Possession %	47
1.28	xG	0.85
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	14.8
5.6	Shots on target	5.4
6.8	Corners	6.4
1.60	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	10.8
51	Possession %	53
1.94	xG	1.99
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Diriyah	Metric	Al Taawon
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.34 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.79
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	3.00 (better)
12.00	Total shots	13.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.60	Corners	6.75 (better)
45.2	Possession %	54.0 (better)
368	Passes	437 (better)
	Tackles
8.40 (better)	Fouls	10.25
2.60	Offsides	2.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.33 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Diriyah wins: 0
Draws: 1
Al Taawon wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Al Diriyah v Al Taawon1–12026-10-17

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5