Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh

8th1–012th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Al Diriyah		Al Riyadh
16	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	9
11	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
371	Passes	465
44%	Possession %	56%
1.41	xG	0.90

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Al Diriyah 48%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al Diriyah	48.3%	2.07	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-7.9
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.63	4.40 Dafabet	22.7%	+4.8
Match result	Al Riyadh	24.1%	4.14	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.7%	1.42	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.3%	3.41	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+6.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.1%	2.27	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.9%	1.79	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	+9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.0%	4.35	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-9.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.0%	1.30	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.4%	2.07	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.6%	1.94	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al Diriyah favoured against Al Riyadh

Our model makes Al Diriyah 48% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Al Riyadh at 24%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Al Diriyah against 0.97 for Al Riyadh — a substantial edge to Al Diriyah on expected output. A combined 2.44 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 12%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh
Al Diriyah		Al Riyadh
12	Played	11
4-3-5	W-D-L	3-3-5
1.25	Pts / game	1.09
0.83	Goals for / game	1.00
1.08	Goals against / game	2.27
33%	Over 2.5	55%
33%	BTTS	36%
33%	Clean sheets	27%
42%	Failed to score	45%
1-3-3	Home record	3-0-2
3-0-2	Away record	0-3-3
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Diriyah · Al Riyadh

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	16.0
3.2	Shots on target	4.0
4.6	Corners	5.8
2.80	Cards	2.00
8.4	Fouls	11.3
49	Possession %	50
1.28	xG	1.30
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	16.0
5.6	Shots on target	7.5
6.8	Corners	5.0
1.60	Cards	2.25
11.0	Fouls	7.8
51	Possession %	50
1.94	xG	1.97
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al Diriyah	Metric	Al Riyadh
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
2.80 (better)	Shots on target	2.40
12.00 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.20
45.2 (better)	Possession %	42.4
368 (better)	Passes	328
	Tackles
8.40 (better)	Fouls	10.20
2.60	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al Diriyah wins: 1
Draws: 0
Al Riyadh wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh1–02026-10-20

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5