Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5LWWWW6th4–1Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5WLWWD9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Khaleej Saihat
16
Shots
6
11
Shots on target
1
5
Corners
1
15
Fouls
18
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
4
Offsides
0
460
Passes
301
62%
Possession %
38%
3.98
xG
0.52
73%
17%
1 · Al-Ahli JeddahXAl Khaleej Saihat · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Al-Ahli Jeddah 73%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.85
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Al-Ahli Jeddah
72.8%
1.37
1.35 Betano
74.1%
-1.3
Match result
Draw
16.8%
5.94
5.60 Betano
17.9%
-1.0
Match result
Al Khaleej Saihat
10.4%
9.62
10.00 Betfair
10.0%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.0%
1.18
1.17 Betano
85.5%
-0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.0%
6.68
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-1.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
64.9%
1.54
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
35.1%
2.85
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
42.9%
2.33
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
57.1%
1.75
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-2.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.0%
1.89
1.85 Betano
54.1%
-1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.0%
2.13
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-3.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Ahli Jeddah favoured against Al Khaleej Saihat
Our model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah 73% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 17% and Al Khaleej Saihat at 10%. The goal projection is 2.49 for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.85 for Al Khaleej Saihat — a commanding edge to Al-Ahli Jeddah on expected output. A combined 3.34 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Ahli Jeddah is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 11%
2-1 9%
3-0 9%
1-0 8%
1-1 8%
This season
Season records for Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Metric
Al Khaleej Saihat
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
3.21 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.04
—
Big chances *
—
6.25 (better)
Shots on target
2.20
14.50 (better)
Total shots
9.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.75
Corners
3.80 (better)
45.3
Possession %
47.0 (better)
344
Passes
397 (better)
—
Tackles
—
15.75
Fouls
9.40 (better)
2.75 (better)
Offsides
3.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.20
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Al-Ahli Jeddah v 
Al Khaleej Saihat