Al-Ahli Jeddah v 
Al-Gharafa
Match statistics
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Gharafa | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 457 | Passes | 272 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 1.88 | xG | 0.47 |
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Al-Ahli Jeddah 74%
- Likely score
- 2-0 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.62 – 0.89
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 15.9% | 6.29 | 6.80 Dafabet | 14.7% | +1.2 |
| Match result | Al-Gharafa | 10.0% | 10.02 | 10.00 BetVictor | 10.0% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | 1.12 Bet365 | 89.3% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.2% | 7.60 | 8.00 Betfair | 12.5% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -1.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +0.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al-Ahli Jeddah favoured against Al-Gharafa
Our model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 16% and Al-Gharafa at 10%. The goal projection is 2.62 for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.89 for Al-Gharafa — a commanding edge to Al-Ahli Jeddah on expected output. A combined 3.51 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Ahli Jeddah is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 26% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 3-0 9%
- 3-1 8%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Gharafa | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 4 |
| 7-0-4 | W-D-L | 0-0-4 |
| 1.91 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 2.55 | Goals for / game | 0.75 |
| 1.73 | Goals against / game | 2.75 |
| 91% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 55% | BTTS | 75% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 4-0-0 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 3-0-4 | Away record | 0-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | L4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Ahli Jeddah · Al-Gharafa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.1 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 3.4 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 37 |
| 2.24 | xG | 0.90 |
| 7 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 10.7 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.86 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 15.3 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 46 | Possession % | 63 |
| 1.18 | xG | 1.83 |
| 7 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | Metric | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.93 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.67 (better) | Shots on target | 5.25 |
| 11.67 | Total shots | 14.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.33 | Corners | 5.75 (better) |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 44.5 (better) |
| 324 | Passes | 348 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.67 | Fouls | 11.25 (better) |
| 2.33 | Offsides | 1.67 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Al-Gharafa wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa2–12026-10-26
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa4–02025-10-20
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 12 | Al Ain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12 | Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Kashima | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 | Kashima won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9 | Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 8 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 8 | Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 | Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3 |
| 17 | Al Shamal | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Neftchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Neftchi won 1 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Al-Ittihad FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Buriram United won 0 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Al-Wasl FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Port FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Port FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Pohang Steelers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 | Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |