AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5WLDWD8th2–2IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5DLDDD10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
AIK Stockholm
IFK Goteborg
12
Shots
14
3
Shots on target
6
3
Corners
4
10
Fouls
16
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
472
Passes
394
54%
Possession %
46%
2.02
xG
0.95
43%
25%
32%
1 · AIK StockholmXIFK Goteborg · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
AIK Stockholm 43%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.36
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
AIK Stockholm
43.1%
2.32
2.60 Bet365
38.5%
+4.6
Match result
Draw
25.3%
3.95
3.75 Betfair
26.7%
-1.3
Match result
IFK Goteborg
31.6%
3.17
2.57 Betano
38.9%
-7.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.25
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.8%
5.06
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+1.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.1%
1.75
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.9%
2.33
2.40 Bet365
41.7%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.7%
2.88
2.60 BetVictor
38.5%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.3%
1.53
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+1.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.1%
1.67
1.55 William Hill
64.5%
-4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.9%
2.50
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+0.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AIK Stockholm favoured against IFK Goteborg
Our model makes AIK Stockholm 43% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 25% and IFK Goteborg at 32%. The goal projection is 1.62 for AIK Stockholm against 1.36 for IFK Goteborg — a clear edge to AIK Stockholm on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AIK Stockholm
Metric
IFK Goteborg
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.80
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.90 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.76
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
15.40 (better)
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.20
Corners
7.00 (better)
57.0 (better)
Possession %
48.5
564 (better)
Passes
437
—
Tackles
—
12.00 (better)
Fouls
16.50
1.40
Offsides
1.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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AIK Stockholm v 
IFK Goteborg