AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5WLWWW3rd5–0Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5LLLLL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
AEK Athens FC
Panetolikos
26
Shots
8
12
Shots on target
3
9
Corners
3
18
Fouls
12
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
432
Passes
392
53%
Possession %
47%
3.98
xG
0.31
74%
17%
1 · AEK Athens FCXPanetolikos · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
43%
Model pick
AEK Athens FC 74%
Likely score
2-0 14%
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.65
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Panetolikos
8.5%
11.81
21.00 Betano
4.8%
+3.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.25
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-8.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.3%
4.92
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
+6.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.5%
1.77
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-12.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.5%
2.30
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
+11.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.1%
2.93
2.10 Betano
47.6%
-13.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.9%
1.52
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+10.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
43.4%
2.31
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
56.6%
1.77
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-3.3
Match result
AEK Athens FC
74.2%
1.35
1.15 Betano
87.0%
-12.8
Match result
Draw
17.3%
5.77
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
+6.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AEK Athens FC favoured against Panetolikos
Our model makes AEK Athens FC 74% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 17% and Panetolikos at 8%. The goal projection is 2.30 for AEK Athens FC against 0.65 for Panetolikos — a commanding edge to AEK Athens FC on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. AEK Athens FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 26% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AEK Athens FC
Metric
Panetolikos
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.78 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.13
—
Big chances *
—
3.75 (better)
Shots on target
2.40
16.00 (better)
Total shots
9.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.25 (better)
Corners
3.60
56.3 (better)
Possession %
45.2
457 (better)
Passes
352
—
Tackles
—
15.25
Fouls
15.00 (better)
3.00
Offsides
0.40 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50 (better)
Yellow cards
3.20
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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AEK Athens FC v 
Panetolikos